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UK CPI unlikely to bother much in BoE’s OBR, Sterling risk aversion bothers only on RR ahead of 23rd votes

The UK CPI and the US retail sales are in the major focus for the day.

Markets will look ahead to important data releases later in this week, as well as a number of major central bank policy announcements have been scheduled.

In the UK, the BoE MPC is expected to leave policy unchanged on Thursday, with the key UK data releases including CPI, labour market data and retail sales.

We keep track of the mounting pressures on much awaited risky event in the UK, the latest exit polls by different entities in the UK for the June 23rd Brexit referendum evidence that the proportion of voters developing the sentiments that in favor of "exiting" from the European Union (EU) have surpassed those who want to "remain".

Elsewhere, the risk reversals for sterling crosses are mounting up on bearish pressures with needless to what has been revolving around UK trade association with Euro group.

By now the implied 1-month volatility even exceeds the levels seen during the global financial market crisis.

While the risk reversals of 1-3m tenors of GBPUSD and EURGBP are acting crazily ahead of the potential Brexit outcomes.

That creates risk-off sentiment on the FX market and is putting considerable pressure on Sterling. Even though EURGBP failed in its test of the 0.80 mark yesterday, nobody would be able to exclude a return to the record levels seen in early April. Against this background GBP hedges are getting increasingly expensive:

So, it is unlikely that under these circumstances today’s inflation data will be of much interest. After all, it will only become relevant for the Bank of England’s monetary policy again after the situation is back to normal.

Hedgers who deal with GBP are extremely concerned about its currency depreciation over the medium run.

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