Thailand’s Manufacturing Index Surprises with April Growth

Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (THMPI) recorded an unexpected year-on-year increase of 2.17% in April 2025, defying analyst expectations of a 2.95% decline, according to the Ministry of Industry. The surprise growth was attributed to rising industrial output, improved exports of manufactured goods, and a continued boost from the tourism sector.

Despite April’s positive figures, overall manufacturing performance in the first four months of 2025 still lags behind. Cumulative output for the January–April period dropped by 0.75% compared to the same timeframe in 2024, signaling persistent structural challenges in the Thai industrial sector.

The ministry also revised its annual manufacturing growth forecast, slashing it from a previously estimated 1.5%–2.5% to a more conservative 0%–1%. Officials cited ongoing global economic uncertainties, softer demand from major trade partners, and high base effects from the previous year as key factors behind the downgrade.

In a related revision, March 2025’s THMPI data was adjusted from an initially reported 0.66% contraction to a marginal 0.05% increase, offering a more stable view of the country’s recent industrial trends.

Thailand’s manufacturing sector plays a crucial role in the nation’s GDP and is sensitive to shifts in global trade, commodity prices, and regional tourism flows. The unexpected uptick in April could signal a short-term rebound, but officials remain cautious about the outlook for the rest of the year.

This development highlights the fragile but responsive nature of Thailand’s manufacturing economy amid fluctuating global market conditions and internal policy adjustments.