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South Korea’s trade negotiations with the Trump administration are facing increasing political uncertainty, raising fears among investors that Seoul could either strike an unfavorable deal or fail to reach one altogether. The Korean won has already slipped past the key 1,400 per dollar threshold, a level seen as the government’s defense line against speculative pressures, signaling the risk of deeper declines.
Market anxiety escalated after President Lee Jae Myung suggested Seoul may need a currency swap agreement with the U.S. if it proceeds with Washington’s demand for $350 billion in American investments. Analysts warn that without such a swap, annual dollar demand of $100–120 billion could weigh heavily on the won, potentially pushing the exchange rate down by 100 won per year over the next three years.
Seoul is pushing for an FX swap line with the Federal Reserve, similar to Japan’s arrangement, but experts such as Citigroup economists believe Washington will likely prefer the FIMA Repo Facility as an alternative liquidity measure. Korean finance officials have declined to comment, highlighting the sensitivity of the talks.
At the center of the deadlock is a $350 billion investment fund tied to tariff reductions. Without a finalized agreement, South Korean exports could face tariffs of 25% rather than the negotiated 15%, weakening their competitiveness against Japanese and European goods.
The standoff is stirring painful memories of South Korea’s 1997 financial crisis, with fears that large-scale dollar outflows could destabilize the economy. Investors warn that if funds begin to move, the won could tumble to 1,450 per dollar.
Adding to the tension, President Lee has openly mentioned impeachment risks if he accepts terms perceived as detrimental to national interests, though experts see such an outcome as unlikely. For now, the combination of political risks, currency concerns, and trade uncertainties continues to cast a shadow over South Korea’s economy.
