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Singapore has raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 after reporting stronger-than-expected GDP performance in the third quarter. Official data showed the economy expanding 4.2% year-on-year in Q3, surpassing both the government’s advance estimate of 2.9% and economists’ median forecast of 4.0%. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP grew 2.4%, highlighting continued resilience in the city-state’s recovery.
Following the upbeat results, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) upgraded its 2025 GDP outlook to “around 4.0%,” significantly higher than its earlier projection of 1.5% to 2.5%. For 2026, MTI expects growth to ease, forecasting an expansion of between 1.0% and 3.0%. Officials attributed the improved outlook to stronger-than-anticipated economic performance among Singapore’s major trading partners during the third quarter of 2025.
However, MTI cautioned that global risks persist. Permanent secretary Beh Swan Gin noted that ongoing trade tensions and a potential slowdown in artificial intelligence-related capital spending could weigh on future growth. While demand for AI services remains solid, he warned that investment could weaken if capital markets deteriorate.
Enterprise Singapore also updated its outlook, narrowing its 2025 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) forecast to “around 2.5%,” supported by robust AI-driven demand and elevated gold prices. For 2026, it expects NODX to grow between 0% and 2%.
In its October review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy unchanged, citing steady growth despite U.S. tariffs. MAS chief economist Edward Robinson said the current policy stance remains appropriate, with a positive output gap anticipated through 2025.
Singapore continues to face tariff-related headwinds, including a 10% U.S. levy on its exports and sector-specific duties such as a pending 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals. Authorities previously announced a delay in the implementation of the drug tariff to allow negotiations for potential exemptions.
