S&P 500 to Surge Backloaded in 2025: UBS Predicts 6,400 Milestone Amid Global Growth Headwinds

UBS strategists predict the S&P 500 will close 2025 at 6,400, driven by backloaded returns. Despite early-year challenges, U.S. equities are expected to outperform global counterparts, particularly European and emerging markets, amid a cooling global economy.

S&P 500 Gains Expected to Be Backloaded in 2025

UBS market analysts project that the S&P 500 will close the year 2025 at approximately 6,400. With returns "being backloaded," the bank noted in a note, this would represent an approximately 9% increase from the current levels.

"After a rally this year through Trump’s cabinet appointments, we see mild downside in equities in H1 next year amid a step down in US growth," wrote strategists led by Arend Kapteyn.

After more reasonable earnings predictions are made, the company believes that the equity markets will be in a better position in the second half of 2025.

U.S. Equities to Outpace Europe and Emerging Markets

According to Investing.com, although US stocks may underperform European shares for a few months, UBS predicts that US stocks will beat European equities in the long run. On the other hand, compared to EM stocks, European stocks are expected to do better.

When it comes to style, UBS says that quality equities will keep doing better than value companies, and that the US will be a shining example.

Among emerging markets, the bank has singled out Chinese internet companies as a prime target. Nevertheless, the business cautions against putting too much stock in trade gains involving China's other benefactors.

Global Growth Slows Amid Tariff Challenges

Global economic indicators such as falling inflation and interest rates, fastest-rising real earnings in 20 years, and early indications of a housing market revival are encouraging, but strategists predict a slowdown in growth.

In particular, they anticipate a slowdown in worldwide growth over the next two years, with estimates ranging from 2.6% to 3.2%. Reasons for this prediction include the thought that the US economy will slow down and, more importantly, the effect that US tariffs will have on China's economy, which is already in a precarious position.