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SEC postpones decision on spot Bitcoin ETF proposals, affecting BlackRock and Invesco, among others. The delay adds uncertainty despite increased chances of eventual approval highlighted by a recent Grayscale court victory over the SEC.
According to filings made on September 28, as reported by Cointelegraph and The Block, additional proposals from Fidelity, VanEck, and WidsomTree are also expected to face postponements. These delays coincide with concerns surrounding an anticipated government shutdown.
Government Shutdown Concerns
The timing of these delays is linked to the potential U.S. government shutdown scheduled for October 1. Both chambers of Congress have yet to agree on funding bills to finance government operations. To avoid a shutdown, Congress must pass 12 separate full-year funding bills by the October 1 deadline. The expected shutdown would disrupt the functioning of the country's financial regulators and other federal agencies.
The latest setback for the spot Bitcoin ETF applicants came two weeks earlier than the anticipated second deadline. Originally, applicants expected to hear from the SEC between October 16 and October 19. However, the third set of deadlines, scheduled for around mid-January, may also face delays. The SEC must make a final decision by mid-March at the latest.
Increased Probability of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
Following the recent court win by Grayscale over the SEC, as reported by EconoTimes, the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved has increased. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimates the chances of approval to be 75% by the end of 2023, up from an earlier estimate of 65%. Balchunas predicts a 95% probability of approval by the end of 2024.
The SEC's delay impacts several proposals for spot Bitcoin ETFs, including those from BlackRock, Invesco, Bitwise, and Valkyrie. Concerns over an impending U.S. government shutdown contributed to the timing of the postponements. Future deadlines for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants also face uncertainties, potentially causing further delays.
Despite these setbacks, the recent court win by Grayscale has increased the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the coming years.
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