After yesterday’s FOMC minutes gave clearest indication ever for a June rate hike, interest rates market have adjusted sharply in anticipation of such.
As per the minutes, many participants believed a riser would be appropriate at June meeting if the economic data and job market conditions continue to improve as inflation heads towards 2% target in the medium term.
- Market is now attaching 70% probability that there won’t be a hike in June, compared to 81% before the minutes.
- Market is attaching 51% probability that there will be a hike in July, compared to 62% before, predicting no hike.
- Before minutes market was pricing 55% chance of a hike in September, now pricing 63% odds of such.
- Market is attaching 66% hike probability in November compared to 58% before and 79% probability for December, up from 72% before.
Dollar index is currently trading at 95.22, down -3.45% YTD.


BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High, Signals Strong Focus on Inflation Risks
China Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged for 13th Straight Month as Policymakers Prioritize Credit Demand Recovery
Indian Government Bonds Seen Opening Steady Ahead of RBI Policy Decision
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns
Indonesia Central Bank to Draft New Regulations After Expanded Economic Growth Mandate
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed




