BOK Expected to Hold Rates at 2.50% as Housing and Currency Pressures Persist 
BOJ Faces Pressure for Clarity, but Neutral Rate Estimates Likely to Stay Vague 
Indonesia Aims to Strengthen Rupiah as Central Bank Targets 16,400–16,500 Level 
RBA Reassesses Pricing Behaviors and Policy Impact Amid Inflation Pressures 
Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise as December Decision Looks Increasingly Divided 
RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Cools and Growth Outlook Strengthens 
After yesterday’s FOMC minutes gave clearest indication ever for a June rate hike, interest rates market have adjusted sharply in anticipation of such.
As per the minutes, many participants believed a riser would be appropriate at June meeting if the economic data and job market conditions continue to improve as inflation heads towards 2% target in the medium term.
- Market is now attaching 70% probability that there won’t be a hike in June, compared to 81% before the minutes.
- Market is attaching 51% probability that there will be a hike in July, compared to 62% before, predicting no hike.
- Before minutes market was pricing 55% chance of a hike in September, now pricing 63% odds of such.
- Market is attaching 66% hike probability in November compared to 58% before and 79% probability for December, up from 72% before.
Dollar index is currently trading at 95.22, down -3.45% YTD.
