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Potential scenarios ahead for US Fed

According to Rabobank commentary, the most cogent underlying argument the Fed seems to have for a rate hike is that they had better move rates up now so that when things go wrong ahead they have room to move them down again. Here are the most likely potential scenarios ahead:

(1)US recovery - and rate hmost cogent underlying argument the Fed seems to have for a rate hike is that they had better move rates up now so that when things go wrong ahead they have room to move them down again!

(2)US recovery hikes - while the rest of the world struggles, so further USD gains and pain for the USD borrowers globally, as well as a dampener of the kind of dynamic that saw a net USD1.5 trillion added to US household wealth in Q4 via 'asset rich (income poor)' Fed policy;

(2) The Fed huffs and puffs but does not hike as US data weakens, meaning we are without a global growth engine, so currency wars then enter a new, more worrying phase; or

(3) the Fed make a policy error with a rate rise, and a rapid deterioration in the US economy then leads us to a worse version of scenario 2. I'd love to add (4), where all major economies grow at a decent pace like they used to, but that kind of happy ending is reserved for a happier breed of movies and textbook neo-classical economic growth theory.

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