Oil Prices Rebound After Hitting Four-Year Low Amid Shale Output Warning

Oil prices jumped in Asian trading on Tuesday, rebounding from a four-year low driven by demand concerns and rising global supply. Brent crude futures climbed 1.3% to $61.04 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.4% to $57.54.

The recovery comes despite ongoing pressure from the U.S.-China trade war, which has significantly weakened global oil demand. Although both nations have hinted at renewed trade talks, no concrete progress has been made, keeping market sentiment cautious. Recent economic data from both countries—including slowing Chinese services growth and a surprise U.S. GDP contraction—have further fueled concerns about reduced energy consumption.

Adding to the market’s instability, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced steeper-than-expected production increases over the weekend. Saudi Arabia is set to lead efforts to unwind more than two years of output cuts, with member states pushing to boost exports and offset price declines.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale production may have reached its peak. Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), a key player in the Permian Basin, warned that American onshore oil output has likely peaked and will decline this quarter. The company cited unprofitable price levels and slashed its 2025 production and capital expenditure forecasts, contradicting recent calls from President Trump to ramp up energy production.

With oil supply rising and demand outlook weakening, markets remain volatile. While Tuesday’s price bounce offered some relief, analysts caution that structural challenges in global demand and U.S. output could keep oil prices under pressure in the near term.