The ECB conducts the fifth TLTRO programme on 24 September. The outstanding loans to the non-financial private sector (excluding housing loans) would increaseby €45bn per quarter over the 2015-16 period.
"The TLTRO take-up, net of adjustments to MRO and 3m LTRO, will be close to that amount. In other words, the total of monetary operations (MRO, TLTRO) is expected to increase by €45bn between end August and end-October", says Societe Generale.
This outcome would be similar to the 18 June TLTRO, when the gross takeup printed at €73.8bn but the net increase in monetary operations between end-May (€496bn) and end-July (€544bn) was only €48bn.