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Asian equities are on track for a second consecutive week of strong gains as easing tensions in the Middle East push oil prices further below the $100-per-barrel threshold. Investors are growing increasingly optimistic about a potential resolution to the ongoing conflict, despite the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply — remaining closed.
Diplomatic progress has been moving quickly. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took hold on Thursday, while President Donald Trump indicated that a fresh round of U.S.-Iran negotiations could take place as early as this weekend. The news sent Brent crude futures down over 1% to $98.14 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate dropping 1.6% to $93.15.
Equity markets have responded positively. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan edged down 0.6% on the day but is still up 14.5% for April alone, recovering most of the 13.5% it shed in March when the Iran conflict erupted. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.9% after touching a record high the previous session. On Wall Street, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the second straight day, buoyed by solid corporate earnings.
However, some market veterans are urging caution. Andrew Chorlton, CIO for public fixed income at M&G, noted a striking gap between what central bankers are signaling and what financial markets appear to be pricing in, describing the current investor mood as "somewhat complacent." ATFX Global's Nick Twidale echoed this view, warning that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is necessary before any sustained market rally can be trusted.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index hovered near its lowest level since early March, with the euro climbing toward a seven-week high and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar approaching a four-year peak. The IMF has already downgraded its global growth outlook, cautioning that a prolonged conflict could push the world economy toward recession.
