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Hungary's MPC communication was more dovish than expected. Minutes hinted that inflation forecasts will likely be cut in the March Inflation Report, and that policy could be eased further. The central bank noted lower energy prices as the driver of downward forecast revision.
It is worth noting that the statement strengthened its signaling of policy easing compared with last month, and actually dropped the reference to only using QE measures. The high probability that ECB will cut rates again in March has made MNB accelerate its signaling. The current rate of 1.35% is relatively high in today's world of deflation and negative interest rates and an incremental cut will not help the economy much.
"We expect outright rate cuts by MNB later this year. But we expect MNB to first expand its QE program and only subsequently cut rates. Yesterday's meeting strengthens our view that MNB will cut rates from 1.35% to 1% by mid-year; we see EUR-HUF at 325.00 by year-end." said Commerzbank in a report.
