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Japanese stocks surged on Monday while the yen dropped sharply following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s unexpected resignation, which fueled political and fiscal uncertainty.
The Nikkei 225 rose 1.8%, nearing record highs last seen in mid-August, while the broader TOPIX gained 0.9%. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair climbed 0.7% to 148.44 in morning trade, reflecting a weaker yen even as the U.S. dollar softened.
Markets are betting that political instability will delay any near-term interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Despite persistent inflation and a hawkish tone earlier this year, the BOJ has not raised rates since January due to concerns over economic growth. Ishiba’s departure, prompted by his party’s crushing defeat in July elections, has only intensified doubts about Japan’s fiscal direction.
The outgoing leader timed his resignation after finalizing a key trade agreement with the United States, but his exit now leaves investors uncertain about the next policy stance. Potential successors, including LDP veteran Sanae Takaichi, have voiced opposition to BOJ rate hikes and signaled support for expanded fiscal spending. Markets are watching closely whether Japan will shift toward a less conservative economic approach.
Despite political headwinds, revised GDP data released Monday showed Japan’s economy grew faster than initially estimated in the second quarter, offering some reassurance about domestic strength.
The combination of strong equities and a weaker yen highlights the complex interplay of politics, monetary policy, and market sentiment. Investors remain cautious, as leadership changes could reshape Japan’s economic priorities in the coming months.
