U.K. headline inflation remains unchanged at 1.7 pct in September, likely to stay below 2 pct in near-term
Swedish jobless rate remains unchanged at 7.4 pct in September, wage growth unlikely to pick up soon
Australian bonds flat in muted session after market sentiments improve following breakthrough Brexit deal
Australia’s rise in September employment remains smallest in seven months; jobless rate likely to drift higher in near-term
EM Asian currencies likely to prop up as U.S. and China remain on track to reach a partial trade deal, says Scotiabank
Fed’s dovish stance and balance sheet re-expansion likely to weigh on dollar in months ahead, says Scotiabank
India’s FY20 GDP growth likely to be slower than Q4’19 at 6.5 pct y/y, says ANZ Research
In line with the weakness in Q4 FY19 (quarter ending March 2019) GDP print, India’s FY20 GDP growth is expected to be even slower at 6.5 percent y/y, according to the latest report from ANZ Research.
The general activity and consumption indicators show no let-up. Investment indicators provide some green shoots (like credit to industry and investment proposals), a sustained recovery is however, missing.
The growth slowdown, amid weakness in demand pull inflationary pressures is likely to see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut rates further this year, with expectations of a further 75bps of cuts in the next six months.
However, the bigger risks to this view come from a continued slowdown in manufacturing and consumption indicators and trade-related uncertainties which could impact the export outlook.
While the adverse effects of India’s relegation from the GSP (Generalised System of Preferences) programme will likely be limited given its low coverage, an escalation (India has retaliated with higher custom duties on 28 US products) could be unsettling, the report added.