Gold Prices Slip Slightly in Asia as Silver Nears Record Highs on Dovish Fed Outlook 
Oil Prices Rebound in Asia as Venezuela Sanctions Risks Offset Ukraine Peace Hopes 
Australia’s Labour Market Weakens as November Employment Drops Sharply 
Japan Business Sentiment Hits Four-Year High, Boosting Expectations of BOJ Rate Hike 
Asian Currencies Steady as Fed Delivers Hawkish Rate Cut; Aussie and Rupee Under Pressure 
Modi and Trump Hold Phone Call as India Seeks Relief From U.S. Tariffs Over Russian Oil Trade 
BOJ Expected to Deliver December Rate Hike as Economists See Borrowing Costs Rising Through 2025 
Russia Stocks End Flat as Energy and Retail Shares Show Mixed Performance 
ASX Shares Slide After ASIC Imposes A$150 Million Capital Requirement 
Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Asian Technology and Chipmaking Stocks Slide as AI Spending Concerns Shake Markets 
Indonesia–U.S. Tariff Talks Near Completion as Both Sides Push for Year-End Deal 
U.S. Dollar Slides for Third Straight Week as Rate Cut Expectations Boost Euro and Pound 
China’s November Economic Data Signals Slowing Industrial Output and Weak Consumer Demand 
South Korea Extends Bond Market Stabilization Measures Amid Rising Financial Risks 
S&P 500 Slides as AI Chip Stocks Tumble, Cooling Tech Rally 
Global Markets Slide as Tech Stocks Sink, Yields Rise, and AI Concerns Deepen 
India’s equity market remains the top choice among emerging economies, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 14% increase in the Sensex by 2025. Supported by economic stability and strong earnings, the market promises growth amid global uncertainties.
India’s Sensex Targets 14% Growth by 2025, Morgan Stanley Says
According to Morgan Stanley's base case, the benchmark BSE Sensex could see a 14% increase by December 2025, making India's stock market the go-to place for emerging market investors, Investing.com reports.
Despite global growth risks and near-term challenges, India stands out due to its fundamentals, which include strong domestic inflows, stable macroeconomic conditions, and healthy earnings growth.
“With strong earnings, macro stability and domestic flows, it is hard to argue against India's investment case,” according to the analyst.
A stable inflow of non-portfolio foreign currency, a policy that targets inflation with some leeway, and better terms of trade all work to India's advantage.
Macroeconomic Stability and Premium Valuation
Due to these reasons, India's beta to emerging markets is now approximately 0.4, which supports its premium value.
India is poised to take advantage of a private capital investment cycle, deleveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural growth in discretionary consumption, with earnings forecast to expand at an annual rate of 18-20% over the next four to five years.
Equity valuations are supported by a steady supply of domestic risk capital, which keeps local demand for equities strong and reduces the impact of external volatility.
Long-Term Growth Fueled by Private Investment
In their base case analysis, Morgan Stanley assumes that government spending cuts would be maintained, private investment will increase, and the real growth-to-interest rate gap will remain favorable.
Expected drivers of Sensex earnings compounding at 17.3% annually until FY27 are stable oil prices, no U.S. recession, and minor interest rate reductions. Even for this time frame, the brokerage's prediction is 15% higher than the consensus.
Since the COVID years, the Indian market has been dominated by macro forces, but now it's shaping up to be a stock pickers' market.
Cyclical Sectors and Small Caps Highlight Strategy
Financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology are cyclicals, thus Morgan Stanley recommends being overweight in those areas and underweight in others.
Investors are putting their faith in domestic economic drivers by favouring small and mid-cap equities over large caps.
