Gold Soars to $3445 as US Core PCE Inflation Hits 2.9%, Boosting Rate Cut Odds

Gold prices gained sharply after the US inflation data.  It hit an intraday high of $3441.58 and is currently trading around $3440.

The US Core PCE Price Index, released on August 29, 2025, rose 0.3% month-over-month in July, matching economists' expectations and June's rate, while the annual rate increased to 2.9% from 2.8%, the highest since February 2025. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, this key Federal Reserve inflation gauge indicates persistent inflationary pressures, complicating potential interest rate cuts in September 2025 as policymakers balance price stability and economic growth.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of  25 bpbs rate cut in Sep 17th  2025 meeting have increased to 89.20% from 84.70% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
 
Gold prices are holding above the short-term moving average 34 EMA and  55 EMA) and the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3410, and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3375/$3356/$3320 $3300/$3290/$3275/$3245/$3200. The near-term resistance is at $3450 with potential price targets at $3475/$3500/$3550.

It  is good to buy on dips around $3410-12 with a stop-loss  at $3375 for a target price of $3500.