Japan Private-Sector Growth Slows as Domestic Demand Weakens 
Dollar Falls as Oil Eases, Yen Jumps on Intervention Signals 
Wall Street Ends Flat as Oil, Treasury Yields and Fed Jitters Rattle Markets 
Australia Unemployment Hits Five-Year High Despite Strong Jobs Growth 
US Comfortable With Canada Trade Standoff as Import Bans Loom 
Asian Stocks Fall as Bond Yields Surge Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit 
US Stock Futures Fall as Treasury Yields Surge Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit 
Gold Holds Near $4,275 as Rising Treasury Yields Fuel Fed Rate Hike Bets 
Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High as Yen Approaches 160 
Asian Currencies Mixed as Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High 
European Stocks Fall as Bond Yields and Geopolitical Risks Weigh 
China’s ‘Lipstick King’ Says AI Won’t Replace Livestream Hosts 
Oil Prices Jump 3% as Houthi Attack Revives Supply Fears 
RBI Uses $10 Billion Currency Swaps to Drain Excess Rupee Liquidity 
U.S. Dollar Hits Two-Month High as Oil, Treasury Yields Surge 
Japanese Bank Stocks Surge as Bond Yields Fuel Rate Hike Bets 
Fed’s Hammack Says Bond Yield Surge Is Not Driven by Inflation Fears 
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Asian stock markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors awaited developments on a potential U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump is set to meet with congressional leaders later in the day to discuss extending federal funding. Without a deal, the shutdown would begin Wednesday, coinciding with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other goods.
Analysts warn a prolonged closure could hinder the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions ahead of its October 29 meeting, as key reports like September payrolls would be delayed. Bank of America noted that while private data could fill gaps, the lack of official government releases may slightly reduce the likelihood of an October rate cut, though markets still price in a 90% chance. Growth impacts are expected to be minor, with estimates of a 0.1% reduction in GDP per week of closure. However, permanent job cuts tied to the shutdown could weigh on employment and consumer confidence.
Despite political uncertainty, equities may find support in seasonal trends. Historically, the fourth quarter has been favorable for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 posting gains nearly three-quarters of the time. On Monday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%, while European futures, including Eurostoxx 50, FTSE, and DAX, also rose 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.7% after a strong September, while South Korea’s market advanced 1.2%. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.4%, adding nearly 4% in September.
Treasury yields steadied at 4.17% after recent pressure from strong U.S. economic data. The dollar index held firm at 98.134, with the euro trading at $1.1708 and the yen at 149.49.
In commodities, gold hovered near record highs at $3,764 an ounce, while oil prices eased. Brent crude slipped 0.8% to $69.57, and U.S. crude fell 0.9% to $65.14 as Iraq resumed exports through a key pipeline. OPEC+ is expected to approve another output hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting.
