FxWirePro: Forex daily update

The US dollar index trades weak despite upbeat US retail sales. It rose by 0.30% in Nov compared to a forecast of -0.10%. Core retail sales excluding autos jumped 0.20% vs. an Estimate of 0.10%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped by 19000 last week to 202000, compared to a forecast of 219K. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike declined to 85.50% from 89.90% a day ago.

 The US 10-year yield declined more than 7% despite strong US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -47% from -53%.

Major resistance- 102.40/103

Major support- 101.70/101.

EURUSD-

EURUSD showed a nice pullback after the hawkish rate pause by the ECB. The central bank kept its rates unchanged and ruled out a rate cut discussion in the meeting. The policy divergence between the ECB and Fed supports the Euro at lower levels.

Major resistance- 1.1020,1.1070

Major support- 1.0935,1.0865

Yen-

USDJPY pared some of its gains after a minor pullback. The pair was one of the worst performers this week on a dovish rate pause by the Fed.

Major Resistance- 142.50,143

Major support- 141.50,140.80

Pound sterling

The pound sterling jumped sharply after the Bank of England's monetary policy. The central bank kept its rates unchanged at 5.25%   with a 6-3 vote where three members opted for a 25 bpbs rate hike.

Major Resistance- 1.2800,1.2870

Major support- 1.2750,1.2680

Economic calendar -

Dec 15th, 2023,  German flash manufacturing PMI (8:30 am GMT)

                                UK Flash manufacturing PMI (9:30 am GMT)

 US Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

    US Flash Manufacturing PMI (2:45 pm GMT)

     ECB monetary policy (1:15 pm GMT)

       US retail sales (1:30 pm GMT)