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The US dollar index trades weak despite upbeat US retail sales. It rose by 0.30% in Nov compared to a forecast of -0.10%. Core retail sales excluding autos jumped 0.20% vs. an Estimate of 0.10%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped by 19000 last week to 202000, compared to a forecast of 219K. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike declined to 85.50% from 89.90% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield declined more than 7% despite strong US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -47% from -53%.
Major resistance- 102.40/103
Major support- 101.70/101.
EURUSD-
EURUSD showed a nice pullback after the hawkish rate pause by the ECB. The central bank kept its rates unchanged and ruled out a rate cut discussion in the meeting. The policy divergence between the ECB and Fed supports the Euro at lower levels.
Major resistance- 1.1020,1.1070
Major support- 1.0935,1.0865
Yen-
USDJPY pared some of its gains after a minor pullback. The pair was one of the worst performers this week on a dovish rate pause by the Fed.
Major Resistance- 142.50,143
Major support- 141.50,140.80
Pound sterling
The pound sterling jumped sharply after the Bank of England's monetary policy. The central bank kept its rates unchanged at 5.25% with a 6-3 vote where three members opted for a 25 bpbs rate hike.
Major Resistance- 1.2800,1.2870
Major support- 1.2750,1.2680
Economic calendar -
Dec 15th, 2023, German flash manufacturing PMI (8:30 am GMT)
UK Flash manufacturing PMI (9:30 am GMT)
US Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)
US Flash Manufacturing PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
ECB monetary policy (1:15 pm GMT)
US retail sales (1:30 pm GMT)
