Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
US Dollar Index
- Current Status: The US dollar index pared its gains despite strong US inflation data. It hit a low of 104.95 yesterday and is currently trading around 104.97.
- Recent Economic Data:
- US PPI: Rose 0.50% m/m in April, above the estimate of 0.30%.
- Annual Producer Price Index: Increased by 2.2% over the last year, the highest PPI reading since April 2023.
- Core PPI: Excluding food and energy costs, also rose by 0.50% vs. an estimate of 0.20%.
- CME Fed Watch Tool: The probability of a no-rate cut in June increased to 96.7% from 91.3% a week ago.
- Technical Levels:
- Resistance: 105.60 / 106.50
- Support: 104.50 / 103.80
Major Economic Data for the Week
- May 15th, 2024:
- US CPI and Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)
- Euro Flash GDP (9 am GMT)
EUR/USD
- Current Status: EUR/USD gained momentum after upbeat German ZEW sentiment. It hit a high of 1.08278 and is currently trading around 1.08234.
- Technical Levels:
- Resistance: 1.08650 / 1.0900
- Support: 1.0760 / 1.0700
USD/JPY
- Current Status: The pair consolidated in a narrow range ahead of the US CPI data. Any break above 157 confirms further bullishness.
- Technical Levels:
- Resistance: 157 / 158
- Support: 155 / 153.40
USD/CAD
- Current Status: The Canadian dollar trades higher despite weak crude oil prices. Any break below 1.3600 confirms further bearishness.
- Technical Levels:
- Resistance: 1.3700 / 1.3765
- Support: 1.3600 / 1.3535
