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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2043.50
Kijun-Sen- $2036.03
Gold pared some of its gains after hawkish Fed monetary policy. The central bank kept its rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% and said that no cut until inflation reached the 2% level. The yellow metal hit a low of $2030 yesterday and is currently trading around $2041.53.
US ADP private employment grew at 107k in Jan, below expectations of 141000. The Chicago PMI fell to 46 in Jan from the previous month's 47.90.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar at 65% from 58.80% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish only if it closes above 103.69 (200-day EMA). Minor support around 103/102.75. The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2030, a break below targets of $2015/$2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2065/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2015 with SL around $2000 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver lost its shine after a minor pullback to $23.32. It trades below 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $23.35 and a close above confirms a bullish continuation. Any close above $23.35 will take the pair to $23.60/$24 is possible. It is facing immediate support at around $22.50. Any break below target $21.90/$21.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices showed a minor sell-off after the US crude oil inventory. US crude stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels to 421.90 million barrels in the week ended January 26
Major resistance- $80/$83.50. Significant support- $77/$74.
Feb 1st, 2024, US ISM manufacturing PMI (3 pm GMT)
