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This is our longest active open call; short 10-year bund.
In October 2016, we urged our readers to go short in 10-year bund, at the breakout of 162.5 with an initial target of 160 area and subsequent longer-term target of 153. The article is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-10-year-bund-heads-for-a-sell-breakout-367667
In a subsequent article, we have reaffirmed our outlook and also shared our forecast that the spread between the 2-year bund and the 10-year bund would widen over time. That review is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Keep-riding-the-bund-short-call-review-397028 . In addition to that, In January 2017, we had called on our readers to go short in 10-year bund and long the German benchmark stock index around 11560.
In our review on 28th February, we warned our readers that our short call in bund is under threat due to election uncertainties in Europe and warned that it might break the stop loss around 168 if the Dutch election turns out in the favor right-wing candidate Geert Wilders. However, that has not happened and thankfully we maintained the stop loss. The 10-year bund reversed course after reaching as high as 166.3
In several subsequent reviews, we reiterated our commitment to the short side of bund though the movement has been much slower than we originally anticipated. That is not surprising, however, given the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) has taken up a very gradual approach when it came to winding monetary policies. We even urged our readers to add short positions in bund, when it was retesting the resistance line, here, https://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Call-review-Add-short-positions-in-10-year-bund-1067353
In this review, we would once again like to urge our readers to maintain short positions in bund.
Why write the review, if nothing has changed?
A lot has changed actually. Though bund has not reached our stipulated target at 153, it reached close to one of our interim target at 157. When the 10-year bund reached 157.31 last week, it was the lowest point 2015.
However, that is not why we write this review. Our calculations suggesting that the recent selloff that shook the global stock market may not be over for the European markets including the German benchmark index DAX and if we are right and selloff continues, we might see the price of bund moving higher. But that doesn’t change our short side outlook.
We would also like to point out that as you can see in the chart that the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) has reached the oversold level, so a correction might be looming ahead. A dip in the oversold region doesn’t immediately signal a reversal, as a matter of fact, the price could go down further before a reversal takes place but it’s important to note that one could be looming ahead.
