Canada Stocks Steady as Markets Await Fed and BoC Decisions 
RBA Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates in 2026 as Inflation Pressures Persist, Says Westpac 
BoE Set to Cut Rates as UK Inflation Slows, but Further Easing Likely Limited 
BOJ Expected to Deliver December Rate Hike as Economists See Borrowing Costs Rising Through 2025 
Austan Goolsbee Signals Potential for More Fed Rate Cuts as Inflation Shows Improvement 
Hong Kong Cuts Base Rate as HKMA Follows U.S. Federal Reserve Move 
South Korea Warns Weak Won Could Push Inflation Higher in 2025 
Brazil Holds Selic Rate at 15% as Inflation Expectations Stay Elevated 
Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Bank of Korea Downplays Liquidity’s Role in Weak Won and Housing Price Surge 
Australian retail sales numbers have disappointed the streets, actual prints are at -0.1% where consensus was at 0.3% in Feb with consumer sentiment slipping back into 'cautiously pessimistic' territory in Dec-Feb. Jan retail sales grew by 0.4%, the lift following a soft end to 2016. The recent pattern has been driven by significant moves in 'household goods' retail due to the closure of the Masters Home Improvement chain.
Consequently, AUDUSD contained in a 0.7600-0.7700 range.
AUDUSD in medium term perspectives: At the risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared. Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUDUSD during the next few months.
Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017.
