Market Roundup
• Euro Area CPI (YoY) (Apr): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 2.6% previous
• • Euro Area Unemployment Rate (Mar): 6.2%, 6.2% forecast, 6.3% previous
• Euro Area GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Euro Area GDP (YoY) (Q1): 0.8%, 0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous
• Euro Area Core CPI (YoY) (Apr): 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Euro Area CPI (MoM) (Apr): 1.0%, 1.3% previous
• Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr): 2.1%, 2.2% previous
• Euro Area CPI n.s.a (Apr): 103.05, 101.99 previous
• Euro Area Core CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.9%, 0.8% previous
• Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Apr): 0.8%, 0.7% previous
• Greece Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 4.6%, 4.3% previous
• Greece PPI (YoY) (Mar): 8.3%, -1.7% previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Apr): 3.75%, 3.75% forecast, 3.75% previous
•UK BoE MPC Vote Cut (Apr): 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous
•UK BoE MPC Vote Hike (Apr): 1, 1 forecast, 0 previous
•UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Apr): 8, 8 forecast, 9 previous
• ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr): 2.15%, 2.15% forecast, 2.15% previous
• ECB Area Deposit Facility Rate (Apr): 2.00%, 2.00% forecast, 2.00% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 2.0%, 2.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 189K, 213K forecast, 215K previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 4.30%, 4.10% forecast, 2.70% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.6%, 3.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,785K, 1,820K forecast, 1,808K previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Feb): 3.36%, 1.93% previous
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1): 0.80%, 0.70% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1): 1.20%, 0.80% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.6%, 1.9% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q1): 1.6%, 0.3% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q1): 4.5%, 2.9% previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Mar): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.3% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 207.50K, 211.00K previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Feb): -0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 14:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Mar): 1.80% previous
• 14:00 US Natural Gas Storage: 83B forecast, 103B previous
•16:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.595% previous
•16:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.605% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as anticipated. The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold on Thursday and warned that the war in Iran was fuelling an energy-led rise in euro zone inflation while taking a toll on economic activity.The central bank for the 21 countries that share the euro kept the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2%, as economists expected and policymakers including President Christine Lagarde had suggested.But it sharpened a warning about the fallout from the Iran conflict, and the associated disruptions in fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, on the euro zone's economy.Investors expect the ECB to raise the deposit rate three times in the coming 12 months to 2.75%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1703(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1775(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1662(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1583(Japn 19th low).
GBP/USD: The pound gained versus a weaker dollar as the Bank of England left rates unchanged and maintained a cautious, wait‑and‑see approach to the fallout from the Middle East conflict.The BoE set out scenarios for the economic impact of the Iran war, one of which could require a "forceful" increase in borrowing costs.The Monetary Policy Committee's nine members voted 8-1 to keep the BoE's benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75%, with only Chief Economist Huw Pill seeking a hike to 4.0% now, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists.Faced with deep uncertainty about the duration of the war and the extent of the economic damage it will cause, the BoE on Thursday scrapped its usual practice of publishing a central forecast for inflation and other key economic indicators.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3450(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3392(April 13th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday as markets reposition ahead of the May 5 policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia.Expectations for further tightening have strengthened, with futures markets now pricing in roughly an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.This hawkish repricing reflects ongoing concerns about inflation persistence in Australia and has helped provide a modest underpinning to the Aussie.On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged while maintaining an easing bias. However, the presence of three dissenting votes highlights increasing divisions within the committee, suggesting uncertainty around the future policy path.At the same time, global factors remain highly influential. The ongoing impasse in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supply expectations, driving oil prices higher amid renewed geopolitical tension. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7216(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7278(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7029(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped sharply on Thursday as yen firmed following stark warnings from Tokyo officials that intervention to prop up the currency, as well as action in other markets including energy, could be imminent.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said earlier on Thursday that the timing to take "decisive action" in the market was nearing, in her strongest signal yet of potential currency intervention to prop up the sagging yen.Top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura also said the timing to take decisive action was approaching, adding that "extremely speculative" moves in the currency market were increasing. The Ministry of Finance has threatened intervention in currency and oil markets and on Thursday, reiterated that action could be "on all fronts". Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.43(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.60(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.42(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.98(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, trimming earlier losses as oil prices eased from four-year highs, while both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped on Thursday as the dollar eased and oil prices ticked lower, with some analysts also pointing to an uptick in safe-haven demand on growing concerns that the U.S.-Iran war could escalate.
Spot gold climbed 1.9% to $4,629.83 per ounce, as of 1158 GMT, after falling to its lowest since March 31 in the last session. Bullion was down about 0.9% so far this month.
U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 1.8% to $4,642.90.
Oil prices jumped to a four-year high of more than $126 a barrel on Thursday on concerns that the U.S.-Iran war could worsen and lead to a protracted Middle East supply disruption that could hurt global economic growth, but later retreated.
Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose as high as $126.41 a barrel, the loftiest since March 9, 2022, but by 1230 GMT were down $4.13, or 3.5%, to $113.90.
WTI crude futures were down $1.96, or 1.8%, at $104.92. The contract reached $110.93 earlier, the highest since April 7.
