Market Roundup
• EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) 4.2, -0.2 forecast, -1.8 previous
•Hungary Budget Balance (Jan) 32.3B, -1,669.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• `15:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Jan) 104.27 previous
• 16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.4% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.600% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.525% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•18:30 US Fed Waller Speaks
•19:30 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•20:15 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro rose higher on Monday as dollar weakened as investors awaited key jobs and inflation data due later in the week to gauge U.S. interest rate trajectory. Payrolls are forecast to rise 70,000 in January, to leave the unemployment rate at 4.4%, though payroll growth over 2025 is also expected to be revised down quite sharply.Retail sales are seen up a moderate 0.4%, while headline and core consumer price inflation is forecast to slow a little to 2.5% in January. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday she thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labour market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially gained but gave up ground as traders reacted to the crisis facing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and as expectations of further interest rate cuts weighed on the currency.Investor confidence was shaken following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s top aide, McSweeney, on Sunday, amid controversy linked to the Mandelson-Epstein scandal. The development has intensified political pressure on Starmer, marking one of the most serious challenges of his leadership and raising concerns about policy stability. At the same time, sterling’s upside remains limited as markets increasingly price in the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, following recent signals pointing to a softer monetary policy stance. The pound was last around 0.2% higher against the dollar after trading flat against the greenback earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose higher on Monday as commodity-linked Australian dollar was supported by a continued recovery in precious metals. Silver added 2.4% to $79.82, after swinging wildly from a 15% loss to a 9% closing gain on Friday. The metal had plunged in the last two weeks as leveraged positions were caught in a vicious squeeze triggering margin calls and forced selling. Gold was also up 1.5% at $5,033 an ounce having been as low as $4,403 at one stage last week.Market attention is now turning to several Reserve Bank of Australia speaking engagements this week, where policymakers are expected to maintain a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation concerns. Hawkish RBA expectation combined with improving commodity prices, has raised expectations that AUD/USD could extend its 2026 rally beyond the 0.7158 level, which marked a three-year high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7091(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7141(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7000(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6921(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Monday as yen strengthened after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory, reversing six consecutive days of losses as traders bet fiscal stimulus will boost the stock market.The yen had initially pulled back slightly after Takaichi's win on Sunday, with the currency reaching its weakest in two weeks, but then strengthened as the trading day continued.Takaichi is projected to secure around 328 of the 465 seats in Parliament’s lower house for her Liberal Democratic Party. Together with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, she now commands a two-thirds supermajority, enabling her to override the upper chamber, which remains outside her control.The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide win has reduced political uncertainty and reinforced confidence in the government’s ability to implement its policy agenda . Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.42(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.70(Daily high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.61(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.42 (Wed 17th low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Monday, following a global equity rebound after last week’s selloff, as investors reacted to a wave of deal activity, including a surge in InPost shares after news of a $9.2 billion buyout.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.51 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held steady on Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue indirect talks, easing supply concerns, while India’s move away from Russian crude and a global equity rebound helped support prices.
Brent crude oil futures were up 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $68.11 a barrel by 1304 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.60.
Spot gold prices rose to hover around the $5,000-per-ounce mark on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, as a slate of U.S. economic reports scheduled for this week brought investors' focus back to the trajectory of interest rates.
Spot gold rose 1% to $5,008.51 per ounce by 1141 GMT after a 4% climb on Friday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery also gained 1% to $5,029.40 per ounce.
