Market Roundup
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•US Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Dec): -0.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.8% previous.
•US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.8% previous.
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.3% previous.
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 2.43%, 3.26% previous.
•US Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 3.1%, 3.3% previous.
•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 China CPI (MoM) (Jan ) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•01:30 China CPI (YoY) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•01:30 China PPI (YoY) (Jan)-1.5% forecast,-1.9% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No event ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Tuesday as U.S. dollar weakened following data indicating slower growth in the U.S. economy.U.S. Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting pressure on consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of the economy. Data-producingagencies are still catching up on releases after delays caused by last year's government shutdown.Investor attention this week will be focused on other upcoming U.S. data including monthly reports covering employment and consumer prices. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that U.S. job gains could be lower in the coming months due to slower labor force growth and higher productivity. Investors are trying to assess whether weakening in the labor market has tapered off.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday as concerns about British politics and the path of Bank of England monetary policy continued to weigh. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused on Monday to heed calls to quit, after a second aide resigned from a team in crisis over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. Under pressure over the appointment of a man whose close ties to the late U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have come into full focus, Starmer has attempted to change the narrative.Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, seen as a potential challenger, threw her support behind Starmer on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as investors digested U.S. retail sales data and waited for key jobs and inflation data for more clues.U.S. retail sales data U.S. Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting pressure on consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of the economy.Investor attention this week will be focused on other upcoming U.S. data including monthly reports covering employment and consumer prices.Data-producing agencies are still catching up on releases after delays caused by last year's government shutdown.Oil prices were mostly flat on Tuesday as markets awaited guidance from developments in U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations, efforts to resolve Russia's war in Ukraine, and upcoming U.S. economic and oil inventory data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4448(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4546(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4194 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Tuesday as yen firmed in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive weekend election victory. The yen’s gains reflect growing investor confidence in Japan’s political stability and policy direction.Expectations that Takaichi’s decisive win could enable her government to pursue more fiscally responsible policies, without relying heavily on opposition support, have further supported the yen and eased market uncertainty. Investors view the stronger mandate as a positive signal for fiscal discipline and economic management. The yen has rallied this week, seemingly on hopes that political stability in Japan and stimulus will boost growth and drive investor optimism. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.71(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.97(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.34 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.14 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stock indices closed mixed on Tuesday, after reaching record highs in the previous session, as investors reacted to contrasting earnings results from the Eurozone’s largest companies.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.06 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Tuesday, while the Dow rose to its third consecutive record close, as investors processed weak retail sales data and awaited a crucial labor market report.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.10 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.03 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.59% percent
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as the market waited for direction from news on diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran, efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine and data on the U.S. economy and U.S. oil inventories.
Brent futures fell 24 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $68.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 40 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $63.96.
Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday as awaited key U.S. jobs and inflation data, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook..
Spot gold fell 1% to $5,013 per ounce by 01:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for April delivery settled about 1% higher at $5,031 per ounce.
