Market Roundup
• German Trade Balance (Nov): 13.1B, 16.3B forecast, 17.2B previous.
•German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): 0.8%, -0.6% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•German Imports (MoM) (Nov): 0.8%, 0.2% forecast, -1.5% previous.
•German Exports (MoM) (Nov): -2.5%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Nov): -0.3%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Dec): 3.1%, 2.9% previous.
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Dec): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov): 2.3%, 1.6% forecast, 1.9% previous.
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec): 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 66K forecast, 64K previous.
•13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Dec): 4.5% forecast, 4.6% previous.
•13:30 US Canada Unemployment Rate (Dec): 6.7% forecast, 6.5% previous.
•13:30 US Canada Employment Change (Dec): -1.8K forecast, 53.6K previous.
•13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 64K forecast, 69K previous.
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec): 3.6% forecast, 3.5% previous.
•13:30 US Participation Rate (Dec): 62.5% previous.
•13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec): 8.7% previous.
•13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep): -8.5% previous.
•13:30 US Housing Starts (Sep): 1.330M forecast, 1.307M previous.
•13:30 US Building Permits (Sep): 1.350M forecast, 1.330M previous.
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Dec): -9.4K previous.
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Dec): 63.0K previous.
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Dec): 4.0% previous.
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Dec): 65.1% previous.
•13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec): -5K forecast, -5K previous.
•13:30 US Government Payrolls (Dec): -5.0K previous.
•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Dec): 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous.
•13:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Sep): -2.3% previous.
•13:30 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan): 4.2% previous.
•13:30 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan): 54.6 previous.
•13:30 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan): 3.2% previous.
•13:30 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan): 53.5 forecast, 52.9 previous.
•13:30 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jan): 50.4 previous.
•13:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan): 4.2% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan): 54.6 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan): 3.2% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan): 53.5 forecast, 52.9 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jan): 50.4 previous.
•15:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous.
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 412 previous.
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 546 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Friday as markets awaited the U.S. jobs report. The upcoming December nonfarm payrolls release is expected to clear much of the data fog caused by the recent government shutdown, though analysts cautioned that nuances in the data may offer limited clarity on the interest-rate outlook.Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday showed a marginal rise in applications for unemployment benefits. Fed funds futures indicate an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting, up from 68% a month ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1716(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1644(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1600(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Friday as the U.S. dollar stayed firm ahead of the crucial U.S. jobs report. Economists expect modest job growth of around 60,000 and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6%.Second-tier labour data earlier in the week offered limited direction, with private-sector job growth rebounding less than expected in December, while the ISM services employment index rose to its highest level in nearly a year. Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings in November fell well short of forecasts, even as layoffs declined sharply.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3453(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3497(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3389(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3346(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Friday in subdued trading as markets looked ahead to U.S. jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by about 60,000 in December after a 64,000 gain in November, according to a survey of economists, following a sharp loss of 105,000 jobs in October—the biggest drop in nearly five years largely due to deferred buyouts among federal government employees.Traders are pricing in at least two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, despite the central bank signalling in December that it expects only one cut in 2026. The Australian dollar was modestly lower at $0.6698, after slipping 0.3% overnight, marking a second straight day of declines from a 15-month high of $0.6766. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6705(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6748(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6676(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6664(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen as traders looked ahead to U.S. labour market data later in the day for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. The December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is expected to clear much of the data fog that lingered during the government shutdown and offer further insight into the Fed’s monetary policy path.Markets were also awaiting a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, as a possible strike-down could heighten uncertainty and trigger increased market volatility. The court may rule later in the day on whether former President Donald Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.28 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.22 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit an all-time high on Friday, lifted by an 8.3% jump in Glencore , that put the STOXX 600 index on track for its longest weekly winning streak since May.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.69 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were mostly steady on Friday as investors stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. employment data, while a stronger dollar capped upside momentum.
Spot gold was steady at $4,473.79 per ounce as of 1158 GMT, though it was set for a more than 3% weekly gain. Bullion hit a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery firmed 0.5% to $4,483.
Oil prices rose on Friday amid concerns over potential disruptions to Iran’s output and ongoing uncertainty surrounding supply from Venezuela.
Brent futures were up 59 cents, or 0.95%, to $62.58 per barrel at 1204 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 54 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.30.
