Dollar Rises as U.S. Inflation Shows Tariff Impact, Pressures Yen

The U.S. dollar climbed on Wednesday, supported by a rise in Treasury yields and concerns over inflation linked to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. June’s inflation data showed notable increases in prices of imported goods such as coffee, audio equipment, and home furnishings, hinting that tariffs may be feeding into consumer costs.

As investors lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the dollar strengthened, particularly against the Japanese yen, which slipped to a four-month low of 149.03 before recovering slightly to 148.90. The euro and British pound also weakened, trading at $1.1608 and $1.3394, respectively.

Nathaniel Casey of Evelyn Partners noted that the uptick in core goods inflation could signal early signs of tariff-driven price pressure. While the data wasn’t alarming, he added that lingering uncertainty over future tariffs may make Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautious about cutting rates.

Market expectations for rate cuts have eased, with traders now pricing in about 43 basis points of easing by year-end, down from over 50 basis points earlier this week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.495%, its highest in a month, while the two-year yield held steady at 3.9503%.

The dollar index hovered near a one-month high at 98.60, maintaining momentum against major currencies. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar edged up 0.02% to $0.6517, and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.17% to $0.5955.

Adding to the market's uncertainty, Trump hinted at replacing Powell, criticizing cost overruns in the Fed’s renovation. He also announced a new 19% tariff on Indonesian goods and plans to impose over 10% tariffs on imports from several smaller nations, potentially fueling further inflation and market volatility.