Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions and Central Bank Uncertainty

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor caution ahead of major central bank meetings kept most currencies range-bound. Market sentiment remained risk-averse, with attention turning to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The BOJ is expected to maintain interest rates at its policy meeting, while investors await comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding inflation and potential adjustments to bond-buying. The yen slightly strengthened to 144.70 per dollar, recovering modestly after earlier losses.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted the BOJ’s role as the next key market driver, especially amid Japan’s inflation and trade concerns. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s recent tariff discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump ended without agreement, according to Fuji TV.

Meanwhile, the dollar gained on safe-haven demand as tensions escalated between Iran and Israel. Trump’s early departure from the G7 summit and his call for evacuation from Tehran underscored the crisis. Still, DBS analysts said global spillover risk remains “manageable” for now.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.27% to $0.6507, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.17% to $0.6049. The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1545, and the British pound declined 0.09% to $1.3563. The U.S. dollar index edged up to 98.23.

Looking ahead, the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday is the week’s major event. While rates are expected to remain steady, investors will focus on the dot plot and economic projections for clues on future policy. Ronald Temple of Lazard predicts no rate cuts this year, diverging from market expectations of two.

Trump also signed a deal to reduce certain tariffs on British imports, advancing U.S.-UK trade negotiations.