BoT likely to maintain policy rate at 1.50 pct through 2017, says ANZ Research

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.50 percent throughout this year amid an environment of improving but non-inflationary growth in the country. However, a more broad-based recovery is still elusive.

As expected, the central bank has kept its policy rate steady at 1.50 percent in a unanimous decision. The BoT rate has been unchanged since April 2015. The improvement in global demand has propped up exports and tourist arrivals. Private consumption is slowly gaining traction. All seven members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) unanimously voted to maintain the policy rate steady.

Economic activity continued to pick up. In line with the recovery in external demand, exports and tourist arrivals maintained their ascent. Private consumption also rose, presumably from higher incomes in the tradeable sector and improved farm incomes. Private investment continued to contract. The decline was reflected in a slowdown in credit growth.

Maintaining a supportive monetary policy will be required until a more broad-based recovery in domestic demand is attained. In the meantime, overall economic growth is driven by the rise in global demand. The momentum in domestic growth is not yet strong enough to pose upside risks to the inflation outlook.

"Against a backdrop of improving yet non-inflationary growth, we maintain our view that the central bank will likely maintain a supportive stance and keep its policy rate unchanged through 2017," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.