BSP likely to stay on hold this week, adopt 25 bps hike by end-2017: ANZ Research

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, August 10 and the decision will be released by 08:00 GMT. The fourth largest bank by market capitalization in Australia, ANZ Research said in its latest report that the Philippines central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50 percent, 3.00 percent, and 3.50 percent at their interest rate setting meeting.

The bank note also mentioned that the headline inflation will likely stay anchored in the BSP’s 2-4 percent target range this year. However, the ANZ Research expects the BSP to keep a cautious tone in its policy statement. The knock-on effects on consumer prices of the tax reform, along with the pending upward adjustments to electricity rates, keep the risks to inflation tilted to the upside.

The research note added that the country’s credit growth continues to rise and net of reverse repurchase (RRPs) placements, commercial bank loans rose 19.0 percent y/y in June, maintaining their uptrend since mid-2015. Lending to the real estate sector continues to dominate the increase in lending.

Considering the easing of GDP growth to a more stable path and the deterioration of the current account into a deficit, the increasing credit intensity calls for monetary tightening in the foreseeable future. Lastly, the ANZ forecasts 25 basis points hike in the interest rate corridor by the end of the year.

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