Market Roundup
• US data next week likely to dictate near-term currency movement
•Euro, pound stand tall against stumbling dollar
•Ukrainian drones hit Russian refineries
•Yemen’s Aden airport shuts as Saudi-UAE rift deepens
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:55 EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.7 forecast, 48.2 previous.
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 49.2 forecast, 49.6 previous.
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Nov): 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•09:00 EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Nov): 2.9% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Nov): 17,085.8B previous
•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Nov): 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•09:30 UKS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)51.2 forecast,51.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investors braced for a year likely to feature a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and the prospect of increased market volatility under Donald Trump’s presidency. Early-year focus is also on who Trump will nominate as the next Fed Chair, with current Chair Jerome Powell’s term set to end in May.Markets expect Trump’s pick to be more dovish, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts after the president repeatedly criticised the Fed and Powell last year for not easing policy more quickly or aggressively. Traders are currently pricing in two rate cuts this year, compared with just one projected by a divided Fed.Geopolitical risks are also in focus, with the United States stepping up enforcement against Venezuela’s oil trade, while renewed Russia-Ukraine strikes over the New Year targeted Black Sea ports and key energy infrastructure.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded flat against the dollar on Friday as investors braced for a year likely to feature a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and the prospect of increased market volatility under Donald Trump’s presidency.Much of investors’ attention this year is also focused on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s policy path. A batch of economic data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown is due in the coming days and could prove key in determining how far interest-rate cuts can go.Traders are pricing in just a 15% chance of a rate cut this month, though they expect two additional cuts later in the year. The greenback has also been unsettled by Trump’s erratic trade policies and concerns over Fed independencean issue set to move into sharper focus as the U.S. president prepares to announce a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar as Australian dollar was supported by increasing bet that RBA next move on interest rates will be a hike.Expectations of a more hawkish stance from the RBA emerged after the release of the December 9 monetary policy minutes , where policymakers discussed the possibility of interest rate hike this year.Focus will shift to the Q4 CPI data on January 28, where an upside surprise in core inflation could trigger a move at the RBA’s February 3 meeting. The probability of a quarter-point rise in the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.6% cash rate is put at 18% for February, lifting to 70% for May. A move in August is almost fully priced.The Australian dollar closed out 2025 on a strong footing, rising nearly 8% for the year its best annual performance since 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as the yen weakened, with investors assessing the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to monetary tightening. While the BoJ remains committed to its tightening plan, it has offered little clarity on the timing of the next interest-rate hike.Japan’s verbal warnings last month briefly kept the yen out of intervention territory, with Finance Minister Katayama stressing the country’s freedom to act against excessive currency moves. However, concerns over further yen weakness persist. Business lobby leaders have since urged the government to take steps to address the currency’s decline and support a stronger yen.Japan’s expansive fiscal policy also remains a source of concern, with public debt already exceeding twice the size of the economy. The yen ended 2025 with a modest 0.3% gain, snapping a four-year losing streak after two rate hikes during the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks started 2026 on a positive note in subdued holiday trading, even as investors braced for tests to the AI-fuelled rally, a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve, and the prospect of greater turbulence during Donald Trump’s presidency.
Hanag Sang was up 2.58%, South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 2.27%
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to around $4,340 an ounce on the first trading day of 2026, extending its strongest annual performance in over four decades.
Oil prices inched up at the start of 2026, rebounding from their biggest annual loss since 2020, amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil assets and U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s exports.
Brent crude futures climbed 42 cents on Friday to $61.27 a barrel at 0714 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.84 a barrel, up 42 cents.
