Market Roundup
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 596.4B , -923.0B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 1,885.0B, 2,476.1B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast,0.3%previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% forecast,2.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.2% forecast,2.0% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) 2.0% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 129.42 forecast,129.31 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) 2.4% forecast,2.3% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•09:35 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•10:00 US IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid global trade tensions and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. China accused the U.S. of stoking panic over its rare earth export controls while rejecting calls to roll back the restrictions.Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for another rate cut, citing labor market concerns. Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction at the Fed’s October 29-30 meeting, with another potential cut expected in December. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to hold another summit on the war in Ukraine. Western nations continue to pressure Russia over its oil exports, with Britain imposing sanctions on major Russian oil firms. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1822(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1688(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1608(50%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday as greenback weakened amid trade frictions and signs of slowing U.S. growth. The dollar index is on track for its biggest weekly drop in almost three months, with the extended government shutdown halting important economic reports.Trade tensions between Beijing and Washington escalated overnight, as China accused the U.S. of fueling panic over rare earth controls and rejected White House calls to ease them.U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller voiced support for another rate cut due to labour market concerns. Investors are expecting a 25-basis-point reduction at the Fed's October 29-30 meeting and another reduction in December. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged 0.1% lower to 98.19, on course for a 0.7% slide this week - the biggest five-day retreat since late July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3543(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3567(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3415(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3165(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Friday as disappointing employment data heightened expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thursday’s report showed that Australian employment rose by just 14,900 in September, falling short of forecasts for a 20,000 gain and following a revised decline of 11,800 in August.The unemployment rate climbed to 4.5%, its highest level since November 2021, exceeding the RBA’s projected peak of 4.3%. The figures highlight ongoing weakness in the labor market, reflecting slower-than-expected job growth in recent months. Market participants now expect that the RBA may move to ease monetary policy sooner to support employment and economic growth. Market pricing now shows an 85% probability that the RBA will lower the 3.60% cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 4 meeting, up from 50% earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6476(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6565(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6458(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64167(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower against Japanese yen on Friday as global trade frictions and further rate-cut hopes pushed investors towards the safe yen.China and the U.S. clashed again on trade overnight, with Beijing rejecting White House pressure and accusing Washington of stoking alarm over rare earth restrictions.The latest escalation adds to ongoing tensions between the world’s two largest economies, highlighting the growing risk of a prolonged trade standoff and its potential impact on global supply chains.Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda stated in Washington on Thursday that the central bank is prepared to raise its key policy rate if the chances of meeting its growth and inflation forecasts improve.The yen has weakened since fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of Japan’s ruling LDP earlier this month, but her appointment as prime minister has been delayed due to a split with the party’s coalition partner .Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.48(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.72 (38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.55(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell, Treasuries rose further, and gold reached a new peak on Friday as signs of stress at U.S. regional banks rattled investors and fueled expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing.
Hang Seng was down 1.73% ,China’sA50 traded down 1.87% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.02 %
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a new high above $4,300 an ounce on Friday, with the metal poised for its best weekly performance in 17 years, driven by U.S. bank concerns, global trade disputes, and rate-cut expectations.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,359.31 per ounce, as of 0615 GMT, after scaling another record high of $4,378.69 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery jumped 1.6% to $4,372.10.
Oil prices slipped on Friday, set for a nearly 3% weekly decline, as uncertainty over global energy supplies rose following plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures were down 16 cents, or 0.26%, at $60.90 a barrel at 0645 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were 15 cents lower, also down 0.26%, at $57.31.
