Market Roundup
• Australia Employment Change (Sep) 14.9K, 20.5Kforecast,-11.8K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Sep) 8.7K, -48.6K previous
• Australia Participation Rate (Sep) 67.0%, 66.8% forecast, 66.9% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Sep) 108.0B, 105.9B previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.5%, 4.3% forecast,4.3% previous
•U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Aug) 1.0%, 1.8% previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%,0.1%forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Aug)1.3%,1.3% forecast 1.5% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.4%, 0.4% forecast 0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%,0.2% forecast -0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) -0.7%, -0.6% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.230% previous
•08:30 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.483% previous
•08:30 Spanish 7-Year Obligacion Auction 2.922% previous
• 09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Aug) 8.940B forecast ,7.908B previous
• 09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Aug) 1.92B previous
• 09:00 Trade Balance (Aug) 6.9B forecast,12.4B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 10:00 IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed higher on Thursday as traders braced for yet another episode in the French political drama, with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu likely to survive two no-confidence votes in parliament. France is in the midst of its worst political crisis in decades as a succession of minority governments seek to push deficit-reducing budgets through a truculent legislature split into three distinct ideological blocs.Lecornu, already France's shortest-serving prime minister in modern times before he was re-appointed last week, had faced the prospect of an even shorter second stint until he made pension reform concessions to win support from the left. The euro hit a one-week high and was up 0.12% at $1.1661 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16680(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1740(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1611(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1538(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Thursday after UK economy expanded in August. Britain’s economy returned to growth in August, expanding 0.1% from July, providing some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of her November budget. However, July’s GDP was revised to show a 0.1% decline, rather than remaining flat, according to the Office for National Statistics. The IMF forecasts the UK to have the second-fastest growth among G7 nations in 2025, after the United States. BoE policymakers, who held interest rates at 4% in September, are trying to steer their way between stubbornly high inflation and weak growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3481(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3291(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3231(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Thursday after unemployment hit a near four-year high, reviving expectations of a near-term rate cut.Australian employment rose by 14,900 in September, below forecasts of a 20,000 gain, after a revised 11,800 drop in August.The unemployment rate climbed to 4.5%, its highest since November 2021, surpassing the RBA’s peak forecast of 4.3%.The RBA kept rates unchanged at 3.60% in September after three cuts this year, awaiting further inflation data.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was little changed on Thursday as investors weighed Japanese political developments after parliament failed to set a date for a new prime minister vote. The weakened ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to hold policy talks with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) as LDP leader Sanae Takaichi seeks support to secure next week’s prime ministerial vote. Takaichi’s path had appeared certain until the LDP’s junior partner, Komeito, left their 26-year coalition last week, prompting negotiations with rival parties. On Wednesday, JIP chief Hirofumi Yoshimura said his party would back Takaichi if both sides agreed on key policy proposals submitted to the LDP.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.42(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.96 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.42 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks climbed on Thursday, led by a strong chip sector, boosted by a rally in U.S. tech stocks and a solid start to Wall Street’s earnings season.
Hang Seng was up 0.01% ,China’sA50 traded up 0.81% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.33 %
Commodities Recap
Oil prices jumped about 1% on Thursday after President Trump said India’s PM Modi pledged to halt Russian oil purchases .
Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.9%, to $62.47 a barrel by 0655 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 58 cents, or 1%, to $58.85.
Gold surged to a record high on Thursday, marking a fifth straight gain, as investors sought safe havens amid U.S.-China trade tensions, a potential U.S. government shutdown, and looming rate cut expectations.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,217.39 per ounce, as of 0611 GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion touched a record high of $4,241.77.
