Market Roundup
• Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Jun) -3.3%, 0.8% forecast, -0.4% previous
• Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Jun) -6.4%, -3.1% forecast, 3.7% previous
• Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Jul) 1,287.1B, -, 1,287.5B previous
• China Trade Balance (USD) (Jul) 112.50B, 108.60B forecast, 125.62B previous
• China Imports (YoY) (Jul) 27.5%, 27.9% forecast, 36.0% previous
• China Exports (YoY) (Jul) 23.9%, 22.2% forecast, 27.0% previous
• China Exports (Jul) 17.80M, -, 20.80M previous
• China Imports (Jul) 21.20M, -, 29.40M previous
• China Trade Balance (Jul) 767.07B, 735.00B forecast, 859.05B previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, -, 0.4% previous
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Japan Leading Index (Jun) 116.4, 116.5 forecast, 116.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 10:00 UK Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Jul) 6.60% previous
• 10:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Jul) 3.9% previous
• 10:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Jul) 4.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Friday as dollar edged higher as doubts about an Iran peace deal buoyed the U.S. currency's safe-haven appeal.Tensions continued to play out in the Gulf after Reuters reported a proposed deal between Iran and Oman to help end the U.S.-Iran conflict could give Tehran control over inbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.The greenback also drew support from higher Treasury yields after a Financial Times report citing sources close to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to the potential for a September interest rate hike, depending on incoming data.The closely watched monthly U.S. payrolls report due later on Friday, could provide more clues on the Fed's rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : The British pound was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Friday as renewed Middle East tensions weighed on market sentiment. Concerns intensified after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, with Riyadh warning of possible coordinated strikes involving Houthi forces and Iran-backed Iraqi militias.Brent crude futures rose 1% to $83.38 a barrel after surging 3.8% overnight, although oil remained on track for a weekly decline of 7.5% and stayed well below its recent peak of $102 reached two weeks earlier. Reports that Iran is reviewing a bill to restrict U.S, Israeli and other “hostile” vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz added to supply concerns.Investors are now focused on the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Markets are currently pricing around a 55% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday eased slightly on Friday as doubt builds on Middle East peace deal and markets remained cautious ahead of key U.S. employment data update.Investors remained cautious ahead of the release of the closely watched U.S. July employment report, which is expected to provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook.U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 80,000 in July after a 57,000 increase in June, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.Adding to geopolitical tensions, Yemen's Houthi movement claimed to have launched large-scale ballistic missile and drone attacks, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased on Friday as traders awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for fresh direction.The monthly U.S. payrolls report, due later on Friday, could provide more clues on the Fed's rate path.Japanese authorities carried out their largest-ever single-day yen-buying intervention in April, using around $40 billion of foreign currency reserves to purchase the yen as they resumed aggressive efforts to slow its decline.The intervention provided temporary support for the yen, pushing it up from a near two-year low of 160.725 per dollar to around 155 by May 6, but it failed to change the currency's broader weakening trend.Traders are closely monitoring the risk of further yen-buying intervention as the Japanese currency weakens past 158 against the dollar, with upcoming U.S. jobs data expected to provide clues on the Fed's future policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.82 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.88(May 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.31(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian shares traded cautiously on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision next month..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.07% , KOSPI was downat 0.62%, China A50 was up at 0.77 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Friday and were on track for their strongest weekly gain since January, supported by weaker oil prices and expectations of a softer interest-rate outlook.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,285.89 per ounce, by 0635 GMT, after hitting a seven-week high on Thursday. Prices gained 6% for the week.
Oil prices extended gains on Friday as concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified. Iran, in coordination with Oman, proposed restricting vessels considered hostile from using the strategic waterway and imposing heavy fines on ships that violate the proposed rules, raising fresh supply concerns.
Brent crude futures were up 85 cents, or 1.03%, at $83.34 a barrel by 0634 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 52 cents, or 0.67%, to $77.81.
