Market Roundup
•Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Jul)-13.8% ,-13.0% forecast,-13.7% previous
•Australia Commodity Prices (YoY) (Jul) 15.4%, 14.6% previous
•French Government Budget Balance (Jun) -106.8B, -93.3B previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change (Jul)19.5K,-18.4K forecast,-28.7K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 2.2% previous
•09:40 Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 2.500% previous
•09:40 Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 2.385% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited awaiting a series of U.S. labour market reports this week for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Key data releases include job openings later on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.Markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in September after a divided Federal Reserve kept policy unchanged at its latest meeting. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he remains confident that inflation pressures will gradually ease, but warned the central bank is prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to moderate as expected.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : Sterling edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as traders awaited a series of U.S. labour market reports for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Reports on U.S. labour market due this week include job opening data later in the day, the ADP employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls figures on Friday.Traders currently price in a 65% chance of a rate hike in September after a divided Fed maintained the status quo at its last policy meeting.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he remained optimistic that inflation pressures are on track to ease gradually, but if they don't, the U.S. central bank will not hesitate to respond with rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected consumer spending data indicated demand remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs, leaving room for another interest rate hike if necessary.Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed household spending rose 0.8% in June, boosted by stronger sales of new electric vehicles amid elevated petrol prices.The increase in household spending came despite weak consumer sentiment, which has remained subdued following the Reserve Bank of Australia's three interest rate hikes this year.Markets have largely ruled out the possibility of an RBA rate hike at next week's policy meeting, with expectations for a September increase also remaining minimal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded modestly higher on Tuesday as investors remained wary of further yen-buying intervention.Traders continue to monitor for any signs of Japan-U.S. coordinated foreign exchange intervention.The Japanese yen surged as much as 5% over the previous three trading sessions after Japan confirmed it had carried out a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention with the United States on Friday.Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Tuesday that the impact of higher costs stemming from the Middle East conflict has yet to significantly feed through to consumer prices, suggesting inflationary pressures remain contained for now. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.3` (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.88.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.25(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian markets opened cautiously higher on Tuesday, tracking a global equity rally, while oil prices remained near their lowest levels in several weeks as the U.S.-Iran conflict showed no signs of escalation and remained at a stalemate..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.23% , KOSPI was up at 1.62%, China A50 was up at 1.10%
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Tuesday as investors assessed mixed signals surrounding potential U.S.-Iran negotiations and awaited key U.S. labour market data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate path.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,061.96 per ounce by 0650 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $4,118.30.
Oil prices recovered 1% on Tuesday after a sharp decline in the previous session, as renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions supported prices amid fading hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Front-month Brent futures rose $1.02, or 1.2%, to $84.79 a barrel by 0632 GMT after dropping 7% in the previous session to a three-week low.
