Market Roundup
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.9, 53.8 forecast, 53.9 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.6, 54.0 forecast, 53.3 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) 52.8, 50.0 forecast, 49.7 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 71.1, 70.0 forecast, 73.0 previous
•US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jul) 56.7, 56.7 forecast, 56.0 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 6.2%, 5.0% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.750%, 3.815% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.855%, 3.945% previous
• Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Jul) -0.2% previous
•04:35 Japan 10-Year JGB Auction 2.730% previous
•07:30 Australia Commodity Prices (YoY) (Jul) 16.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower against dollar on Monday as dollar rebounded after ISM data showed U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than four year .U.S. manufacturing activity climbed to a more than four-year high in July on strong order growth, though Middle East tensions continued to disrupt supply chains and keep input costs elevated.The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June. Separately, Euro zone factory output surged at its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in July but growth was largely driven by firms clearing order backlogs rather than rising demand, pointing to a fragile recovery, a survey showed.The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in July from June's 51.4, its highest reading since April but just below a preliminary estimate of 52.0. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : Sterling dipped on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, prompting traders to trim recent gains in the pair. Broader market sentiment remains driven by geopolitical developments, with ongoing uncertainty likely to keep currency markets volatile and range-bound. On the data front,British manufacturing activity expanded for a ninth straight month in July but at the slowest pace in four months, according to S&P Global purchasing managers' data that points to a renewed impact from the Iran war towards the end of last month. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst for GBP/USD and broader dollar direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as greenback gained support after stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. U.S. manufacturing activity increased to the highest level in more than four years in July amid strong order growth, boosting factory employment, though the conflict in the Middle East is straining supply chains and keeping input costs elevated.The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June.Economists polled had forecast the PMI would edge up to 54.0. The PMI this year has held above the 50 threshold, which indicates growth in the manufacturing sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4245(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4327(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4139(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4101(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered some ground as traders stayed alert for further intervention after Japan and the United States carried out a rare joint currency operation.Japan's Finance Ministry said the intervention, coordinated with the U.S. Treasury on Friday, was intended to counter excessive volatility and disorderly moves in the yen, adding that authorities remain prepared to take further action if needed.Despite the intervention, the yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan's gradual pace of policy tightening has kept yield differentials with other major economies wide. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.3` (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.88.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.25(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose higher on Monday as oil prices dropped sharply on hopes that renewed diplomatic efforts could help end the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca shares fell following reports of potential merger talks with U.S. rival Bristol Myers Squibb.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.45 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by1.23 percent.
U.S. stocks started August on a strong footing, with the Dow Industrials closing at a record high as easing U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields lower. Investors also looked ahead to a busy week of corporate earnings and key economic data.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.32 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.48% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.13% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Monday as uncertainty over the war in the Middle East and concerns over rising inflation lingered, with markets also watching a slew of job reports this week to gauge the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,030.34 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), while U.S gold futures for August delivery settled 0.4% lower at $4,090.50.
Oil prices fell about 7% to a three-week low on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump held off on a fresh attack on Iran in the hope of sealing a quick deal that could boost oil supplies from the Gulf.
Front-month Brent futures fell $6.35, or 7.0%, to settle at $83.77 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $4.33, or 5.1%, to settle at $80.34.
