Market Roundup
•U.S. Challenger Job Cuts (Jul) 33.429K, 45.849K previous
•U.S. Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) -46.1%, -4.5% previous
•Irish Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.1%, 5.0% previous
•Canadian Reserve Assets Total (Jul) 127.0B, 126.4B previous
•U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 199K, 203K forecast, 198K previous
•U.S. Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.3%, 2.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
•U.S. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.4%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1,801K, 1,790K forecast, 1,777K previous
•U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Average 198.75K, 203.25K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•06:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%forecast, 06:00 previous
•06:00 Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% forecast ,-0.2% previous
•06:00 Japan Leading Index (Jun) 116.5 forecast ,116.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped against the dollar on Thursday as investors assessed the chances of an Iran peace deal and awaited key U.S. labour market data. Reports suggested a proposed Iran-Oman agreement could allow Tehran to oversee ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, representing a major potential concession.Market focus remained on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report after ADP data showed U.S. private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, below expectations and down from 95,000 in June. Meanwhile, Eurozone construction activity remained weak, with the S&P Global Construction PMI rising to 44.3 in July from 42.8 in June, indicating a continued contraction but the mildest decline since March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1545(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : The British pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors monitored developments around a potential Iran-Oman deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remained focused on Middle East developments amid hopes that progress on the agreement could help restore shipping flows and support efforts to end the U.S.-Iran conflict.The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged last week, noting the need for more time to assess the inflation impact of the regional tensions. Meanwhile, UK construction data showed a modest improvement, with the downturn easing in July and business confidence reaching its highest level since before the Iran conflict. The S&P Global UK Construction PMI rose to 44.7 from 38.4 in June, though it remained in contraction territory below the 50 threshold. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar steadied against the U.S. dollar on Thursday investors turned attention to U.S. and Canadian jobs data. The U.S. dollar clawed back some recent losses against a basket of major currencies as investors awaited more details on a proposed U.S.-Iran deal and looked ahead to Friday's U.S. jobs report.Canadian employment data is also due on Friday. Analysts expect a jobs gain of 15,000 in July and the unemployment rate to remain at 6.5%.Data on Thursday showed that Canada's services economy contracted for a second straight month in July as economic uncertainty depressed market demand and business sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.9165(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.9187(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.9065(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on as the Japanese currency weakened on uncertainty over a U.S.-Iran deal and caution ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. Markets closely monitored Gulf developments after Reuters reported that a proposed Iran-Oman agreement could allow Tehran to oversee inbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the strategic waterway was near, although U.S. officials reiterated they would not accept Iranian control over the route. Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed policymakers discussed the need for further interest rate hikes as inflation risks intensified after raising borrowing costs to a 31-year high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.82 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.88(May 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.31(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at record highs for a third consecutive session on Thursday, supported by optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.35percent.
U.S. stocks rallied to record closing highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow lifted by upbeat results from AI-linked firms such as Caterpillar and Palantir.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.85 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.18% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.03% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gave up earlier gains and traded broadly steady on Thursday as rising oil prices, driven by reports of possible restrictions on "hostile" vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, revived inflation concerns and expectations for higher interest rates.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,244.29 per ounce by 2:50 p.m. EDT (1850 GMT),U.S. gold futures settled around 0.1% lower at $4,299.60.
Oil prices surged more than $3 a barrel on Thursday after reports that an Iranian parliamentary committee was reviewing a bill to restrict U.S. and Israeli vessels from using the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures settled up $3.04, or 3.83%, to $82.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled up $2.07, or 2.75%, to $77.29.
