Market Roundup
- Japan Fin Min Aso – FX, stock markets showing signs of stabilizing.
- Econ Min Ishihara – PM Abe to decide on any sales tax delay based on economic conditions.
- Negative rates beginning to bite BoJ, CP yields dipping deep into negative territory – Nikkei.
- Japan February household spending +1.7% m/m, +1.2% y/y, +0.5% and -1.5% eyed, leap year effect helped, first y/y rise in six months, propensity to consume up.
- Japan February retail sales +0.5% y/y, +1.7% eyed, and tourism down with JPY up.
- Japan February unemployment 3.3%, jobs-applicants ratio 1.28, Jan 3.2%, 1.28.
- Japan top salt seller plans first price hike in 24 year, +35% or so – Nikkei.
- China’s milk stockpile leaves New Zealand dairy farmers struggling.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February trade balance; last SEK1.6 bln surplus.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February retail sales, +0.5% m/m, +4.2% y/y eyed; last +0.7%, +4.0%.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February household lending; last +7.5% y/y.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone February money supply M3, +5.0% y/y eyed; last +5.0%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone February loans; last +0.6% to non-fin’ls, +1.4% to households.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy March consumer confidence index, 114.0 eyed; last 114.5.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy March business confidence index, 102.3 eyed; last 102.0.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US Jan CaseShiller 20, +0.1% m/m nsa, +0.7% sa eyed; last unchanged, +0.8%.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US January CaseShiller 20, +5.8% y/y eyed; last +5.7%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US March consumer confidence index, 94.0 eyed; last 92.2.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) US March Dallas Fed services revenues, outlook indices; last 9.7, -19.2.
Key Events Ahead
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Japan MoF Asakawa press conference pre-G20 seminar in Paris.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) BoE FPC statement.
- (0505 ET/0905 GMT) Italy E6 bln 6-month BOT auction.
- (0515 ET/0915 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech at Singapore National University.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) CBO analysis of ’17 Obama budget.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) ECB/Slovakia CB Makuch press conference on latest economic forecasts.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) ECB/Slovenia CB Jazbec, FinMin Mramor press conference in Ljubljana.
- (0855 ET/1255 GMT) France E3.1-3.5/1.0-1.4/1.0-1.4 bln 3/6/12-month BTF note auctions.
- (1130 ET/1530 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen at New York Economic Club luncheon/16:00 NY Fed Dudley.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Dallas Fed Kaplan speaks in Austin, Texas/20:00 speaks at UT Austin.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar sagged against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after disappointing U.S. economic data pushed it away from a 12-day peak. The dollar index was little changed at 96.020 after sliding on Monday from 96.399; it’s highest since March 16.
EUR/USD: The euro was steady at $1.1194 after gaining about 0.3 percent overnight to snap a six-day losing streak. Pair fails to sustain below key support at $1.1159 marks and trading around $1.1190. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support level at $1.1159. A daily close above key resistance at 1.1217 will drag the parity towards $1.1342/ $1.1376 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1159/ $1.1057 marks.
USD/JPY: The yen underperformed the defensive greenback. The dollar hovered near 113.69 yen struck overnight, it’s highest since March 16, and the euro reached a two-week high of 127.15. Japanese Yen breaks key resistance at 112.60 and remains well supported around 113.60 levels. A daily close below key support level at 112.60 will drag the parity down towards at 110.66/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels.
GBP/USD: The sterling came within striking distance of $1.4300, pulling away from last week's trough of $1.4056. Pair rejects initial resistance level at $1.4283 and took reversal towards $1.4221 marks. A sustained break below key support level will drag the parity down at $1.4057 marks. On the other side, a daily close above $1.4357 will take the parity up towards key resistances at $1.4504/$1.4602.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged up to $0.7551, from $0.7533 on Tuesday before the long Easter break. It remained within reach of an 8-month summit of $0.7681 touched earlier this month. The Aussie was last at $0.7553, following a 0.5 percent gain on Monday. Australian dollar remains supported around $0.7550. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.7497 levels. A sustained close above it will drag the parity up towards 0.7725 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below $0.7433 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rallied overnight, rising to $0.6736 from as low as $0.6670 the previous session after six days of falls. Kiwi erases previous loss against US dollar and edged up for testing key resistance at 0.6750 marks. A daily close above $0.6750 is required to test $0.6859 level. Short term bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.6668. Key support was found at $0.6585, with resistance at $0.6885 levels.
Equities Recap
The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.16% to 17,106.14 points on Tuesday morning in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index was trading 0.68% lower at 1,372.32 points.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 0.13% to 20,319.52 points early on, while the Shanghai Composite index fell 0.25% to 2,950.46 points.
South Korea's Kospi index rallied 0.23% to 1,987.14 points in early trade.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was trading 1.34% lower to 5,015.50 points on Tuesday morning in Sydney.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 index gauge rose 0.11% to 6,669.84 points on Tuesday.
Commodities Recap
Gold clung to small overnight gains on Tuesday to hold above a one-month low, supported by a softer dollar and weak U.S. economic data that dented expectations of an immediate hike in U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was little changed at $1,221.40 an ounce by 0033 GMT. The metal had fallen to a one-month low of $1,208.15 on Monday, before closing the day up 0.4 percent.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns mount that a rally since January is fizzling out, while analysts forecast another rise to record levels for U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. oil was down 30 cents at $39.09 a barrel at 0553 GMT, after finishing down 7 cents at $39.39, the previous session. Brent fell 35 cents to $39.92. On Monday it settled down 17 cents at $40.27 a barrel.
Treasuries Recap
Australian government bond futures were a touch firmer, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 98.040. The 10-year contract rose half a tick to 97.4250, while the 20-year contract edged up 1 tick to 96.8550.
The New Zealand dollar rallied overnight, rising to $0.6736 from as low as $0.6670 the previous session after six days of falls. New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields one basis point lower along most of the curve.
