Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY) 5.9%, 5.7% previous
• US House Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 2.3%,2.7% previous
• US House Price Index (MoM) (Jul) -0.1% -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
• US House Price Index (Jul) 433.4,433.9 previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, -0.2% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) 1.8%,1.7%forecast,2.2% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul) -0.3%, 0.0% previous
• US Chicago PMI (Sep) 40.6,43.4 forecast,41.5 previous
• US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) 94.2,96.0 forecast, 97.8 previous
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) 7.227M ,7.190Mforecast, 7.208M previous
• US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Sep) -5.6,6.8 previous
•Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q3) 12.5%, 11.5% previous
•Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q3) -2.3%,-5.6% previous
•Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q3) 12, 13 forecast,12 previous
•Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 14,14 forecast,13 previous
•Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q3) 28, 29 forecast,27 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.4 forecast,48.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as the greenback weakened amid concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key economic data releases.On the data front, inflation accelerated in the eurozone’s largest economies this month, suggesting that overall price growth across the 20-nation bloc likely rose as well. This eases pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut borrowing costs. The ECB reduced its key rate by 2 percentage points in the year to June but has remained on hold since, as inflation settled near its target. While investors are gradually pricing out further rate cuts, modest policy easing remains possible.Inflation picked up in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, reinforcing expectations that the eurozone’s overall reading, due Wednesday, will come in around 2.2–2.3%, up from August’s 2.0% level.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1665(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as traders digested UK GDP data and assessed concerns of a U.S. government shutdown .U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders made little headway in a White House meeting to avert a government shutdown that could disrupt services as early as Wednesday. The U.S. Labor Department confirmed Monday that its statistics agency would halt data releases, including the closely watched monthly employment report, if a partial government shutdown occurs.Britain’s economy slowed in Q2 2025 following a strong start to the year, official data showed Tuesday, underscoring the challenges finance minister Rachel Reeves faces ahead of November’s annual budget.British GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Q2, down from 0.7% in Q1, remaining unrevised from initial ONS estimates and matching economists’ expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3478(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3505(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3311(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lowerd against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders assed the impact of potential U.S. government shutdown. Government funding expires at midnight on Tuesday (0400 GMT) unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute interim deal.U.S. President Donald Trump warned congressional Democrats on Tuesday that letting the federal government shut down at midnight would allow his administration to take "irreversible" actions including shutting down programs important to them.The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases in the event of a partial shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September.The payrolls report, due Friday, is crucial for Federal Reserve decision-making, so a delay could generate extra market volatility, as uncertainty among investors increases. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3949 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3862 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3871(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3847 (SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Monday amid mounting concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key employment data this week. Investors are now focusing on the Labor Department’s JOLTS report on August job openings, due Tuesday.Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan signaled a possible near-term rate hike. The summary of its September policy meeting, released Tuesday, showed some board members favoring action soon, while others cautioned on rising inflation, reflecting a hawkish tilt. At the September 18-19 meeting, the BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, though two of the nine members dissented, unsuccessfully proposing a rise to 0.75%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.38(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.92(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.97(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks recovered modestly on Tuesday after initial declines, with energy shares restraining broader gains amid concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.54percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.19 percent.
Wall Street’s three major indexes ended Tuesday’s choppy session higher, posting quarterly and monthly gains, even as investors weighed the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key economic reports and complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.18 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.41% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.30% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors anticipated a supply surplus, driven by potential OPEC+ plans for higher output next month and the restart of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey.
Brent crude futures for November delivery , expiring on Tuesday, settled down 95 cents, or 1.4%, at $67.02 a barrel. The more active December contract settled at $66.03.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $62.37 a barrel, down $1.08, or 1.7%.
Gold prices climbed on Tuesday, nearing record highs, supported by fears of a U.S. government shutdown and weak jobs data that fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,843.43 per ounce as of 01:51 p.m. ET (1750 GMT), rebounding from earlier losses in U.S. hours.
