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America's Roundup: Dollar slides after dovish Fed minutes, Wall Street rally, Gold gains, Oil rises on U.S.-China trade talk optimism, OPEC cuts-January 10th,2019

Market Roundup

• Fed policymakers call for caution on further U.S. rate hikes.

• U.S. focuses on China pledge to buy more goods as trade talks end.

• U.S. dollar hits fresh three-month low vs euro, extends fall vs yen after fed minutes.

• Trump says he has right to declare border emergency, Democrats to test Republican resolve.

• CA 9 Jan BoC Rate Decision, 1.75%, 1.75% forecast, 1.75% previous.

• BoE will be "prudent not passive" after Brexit – Carney.

• Pimco's Fels says higher probability of U.S. recession over next 12 months.

• Highest number of emerging economies will raise rates this year since 2006 - JP Morgan.

• Oil up more than 4 pct on U.S.-China trade talk hopes, OPEC cuts.

• Palladium hits record peak on China impetus; weak dollar lifts gold.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 01:30 China Dec PPI YY, 1.6% forecast, 2.7% previous

• 01:30 China Dec CPI YY, 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous

• 01:30 China Dec CPI MM, 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 12:30 ECB publishes the minutes of the December policy meeting in Frankfurt 

• 13:30 Philadelphia Fed issues historical revisions to Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey in Philadelphia 

• 13:35 Richmond Fed's Barkin speaks at an economic forecast event in Raleigh

• 17:30 ECB policymaker de Galhau gives a speech at Luxembourg's central bank

• 17:30 St. Louis Fed’s Bullard gives presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Little Rock

• 17:45 Fed’s Powell speaks before the Economic Club of Washington in Washington D.C. 

• 18:00 Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy in Milwaukee

• 18:20 Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari speaks on immigration and economic growth in Minneapolis

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as greenback weakened after Fed minutes showed policymakers urged patience on rate hikes. After initially slipping following weaker German and French economic data, the euro recovered to post its highest in about three months. The euro rose 0.9 percent to $1.1544. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.8 at 95.20.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1583(38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1673 (23.6% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1479 (100 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1393 (21 DMA).

GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday, as dollar slipped after the Federal Reserve expressed caution about future rate hikes but, gains were limited ahead of British parliament vote on the Brexit agreement. Parliament is due to vote on the agreement on Jan. 15, and May looks set to lose the vote unless she can convince opponents within and outside her party to back her deal. The pound was last trading 0.61 percent higher at $1.2790 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2825 (Higher Bollinger Band), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2902 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2700 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2654 (9 DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to hit five-week high against the greenback on Wednesday, as Canadian dollar was boosted by increased hopes of a trade deal between the United States and China and on expectations that, Bank of Canada will hike interest rate this year. At 2030 GMT, the Canadian dollar was last trading 0.44 percent higher at 1.3214 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3337 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3391 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3162 (100 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3134 (23.6% retracement level).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve expressed caution about future rate hikes, while investors reduced safe-haven bets due to optimism about U.S.-China trade talks. Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting released on Wednesday also showed that a range of policymakers said they could be patient about future interest rate increases and a few did not support the central bank's rate increase that month. The dollar was last trading 0.56 percent lower versus the Japanese yen at 108.12. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.33 (10 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.97 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.00 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 107.43 (23.6% retracement level). 

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Wednesday, driven by the export-oriented autos and tech sectors, as optimism grew that the United States and China could avoid a full-blown trade war that would worsen the slowdown in the global economy.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.8 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.9 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1 percent.

Wall Street rallied for a fourth session on Wednesday, propelled by Apple, chipmakers and other trade-sensitive stocks after signs of progress in trade talks between the United States and China.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.40 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.41 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.85 percent.

Treasuries Recap

Dovish Federal Reserve speakers and a strong 10-year note auction helped bring Treasury yields down from two-week highs on Wednesday, after optimism that the United States would reach a trade deal with China had earlier boosted risk appetite.

Benchmark 10-year notes gained 1/32 in price on the day to yield 2.714 percent, after earlier rising to 2.747 percent, the highest since Dec. 28.

Commodities Recap

Gold held steady on Wednesday, as greenback extended losses after minutes from a Dec. 18-19 Federal Reserve policy meeting showed many Fed policymakers said the central bank could be patient on future rate hikes.

Spot gold gained 0.5 percent to $1,291.51 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.5 percent higher at $1,292.

Oil prices jumped about 5 percent on Wednesday to their highest levels in nearly a month as U.S.-China trade talks raised hopes of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies, while OPEC-led crude output cuts also provided support.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.58 to settle at $52.36 a barrel, a 5.18 percent gain, the first time this year that WTI has topped $50.Brent crude futures gained $2.72, or 4.63 percent, to settle at $61.44 a barrel.
 

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February 15 21:00 UTC Released

UST Flows,Incl.Swaps

Actual

-66.6 Bln USD

Forecast

Previous

25.3 Bln USD

February 15 21:00 UTC Released

USOverall Net Capital Flows

Actual

-33.1 Bln USD

Forecast

Previous

31 Bln USD

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 560597560597m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 560597560597m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 548777548777m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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