Market Roundup
• Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Feb): 2.3%, -1.0% previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.8%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar): 51.7, 54.1 forecast, 56.6 previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar): 53.3, 55.5 forecast, 56.6 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar): 55.8, 57.8 forecast, 56.6 previous
• Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jan): -31.21B, -26.14B previous
• Canada Budget Balance (Jan): -5.07B, 0.25B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday dollar rose buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes faded for de-escalation.Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a U.S. peace proposal to end the war, with U.S. President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that U.S. objectives could be met without ground troops.U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1566(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1583 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1444(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1413(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD:The British pound eased against the dollar on Friday as the intensifying Middle East conflict fuelled safe-haven demand for the greenback and pressured non-dollar currencies. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend a pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities into April and that talks with Iran were going very well, but an Iranian official dismissed the U.S. proposal to end the war as "one-sided and unfair. Brent crude held above $105 a barrel, stoking inflation fears, as the Middle East conflict has all but halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3371(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3398(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3256(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3229(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a two-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investors awaited signs of de-escalation in the Middle East war, which has helped drive safe-haven demand for the greenback. The U.S. dollar was headed for its strongest monthly gain in almost a year, while the potential for the conflict to continue disrupting energy supplies helped lift U.S. crude oil futures by 4% to $98.29 a barrel.Oil is one of Canada's major exports. About 70% of those exports flow to the U.S., but Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to reduce Canada's economic reliance on its southern neighbor. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3875 per U.S. dollar, or 72.07 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since January 19 at 1.3884. For the week, the currency was down 1.1%, putting it on track for its third straight weekly decline.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3918 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3952 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3819(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3722(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as the yen weakened on fears of a lengthy energy shock from the Middle East conflict. Japan remains highly vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices due to its heavy reliance on energy imports. Rising oil costs feed into domestic inflation, eroding the real value of fixed-income assets and increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. The yen, down 2.74% so far this month, also came under pressure from another jump in Japanese bond yields after the Bank of Japan published new estimates for its neutral rate, which signalled that policymakers are prepared to raise rates to counter inflation. Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy leaves it more exposed to higher prices than many other major economies. The yen fell 0.34% to 160.35 yen, crossing the 160 yen level for the first time since July 2024, when Japanese officials last intervened to prop up the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.62(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.60 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.90 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Friday but posted a small weekly gain, reflecting mixed signals from the Middle East conflict.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.87 percent.
U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday, with all three major indexes hitting seven-month lows and the Dow entering correction territory as the month-long Middle East war weighed on risk appetite.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.73 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.67 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped over 3% on Friday on dip-buying, as investors awaited signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold added 2.6% to $4,491.78 per ounce as of 1:45 p.m. ET (1745 GMT) after rising as much as $4,554.39 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2.7% higher at $4,492.5.
Oil prices rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the month-old Iran war.
Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2%, to $112.57 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5%, to settle at $99.64.
