FxWirePro: AUD/USD gains modestly as Geopolitical risks keep markets cautious 
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Market Roundup
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly 10.00K, 11.80K previous
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly 12.00K, 10.00K previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 8.3%, 9.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:00 Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.9% previous
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision. The European Central Bank is expected to hike interest rates on Thursday for the second time this year, with policymakers looking to prevent the Iran war from triggering a broader energy-led inflation surge.The ECB is expected to lift its policy rate to 2.50% from 2.25% on Thursday, with economists anticipating a warning that additional hikes could follow if inflation pressures persist.The ECB is also expected to raise its growth forecasts for this year and potentially 2027 on Thursday, reflecting the resilience of the euro zone economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1641(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1677(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1612(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Wednesday as ongoing Gulf tensions and inflation concerns weighed on the U.S. dollar. Concerns over global oil supplies following renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above the key $100-a-barrel level on Wednesday, adding to inflationary pressures.Attention is now turning to Thursday’s U.S. producer price index and Friday’s consumer inflation report, which could provide fresh signals on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike to combat persistent price pressures. Markets are pricing in about a 60% chance of an interest rate hike at the central bank’s policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, markets see little chance of a Bank of England rate hike next week, although at least two increases are priced in by March, with a third carrying a 40% probability. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(SMA 20 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3535(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3483(Sep 2nd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as Canadian dollar weakened as escalating trade war between the United States and Canada weighed on Canadian dollar.The U.S. imposed broad import bans on Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products on Tuesday, following the implementation of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods after midnight.Brent crude futures climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July 24 as escalating attacks across the Middle East, including strikes on tankers, raised concerns over supply disruptions and dashed hopes of a normalization in regional oil shipment.U.S. inflation data, due on Friday, could help guide expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3877(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3946(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3834(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3751(Lower BB).
USD /JPY :The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Wednesday as investors positioned for central bank meetings next week.Gains have been driven by expectations of faster Bank of Japan policy tightening, prospects for repatriation flows from Japanese investors and pressure from Washington for a stronger yen.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dared traders on Tuesdayto bet against the yen, following historic joint U.S./Japanese intervention to boost the currency in late July to deter Tokyo from selling U.S. Treasuries to fund the operation.Markets widely expect the BOJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17 to 18 meeting, though further yen gains may depend on whether Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforces hawkish policy signals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.04(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.10(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.95(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 152.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to a more than one-month low on Wednesday as Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel, with escalating Middle East tensions fueling inflation concerns and weighing on risk appetite.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.66 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.94 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, while Apple shares slipped and Treasury yields rose ahead of key inflation data due later this week.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.77% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.46% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.64% percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude futures breached $100 a barrel on Wednesday, settling at their highest level since late May after Iran and the U.S. targeted tankers in the biggest wave of shipping attacks since the war began, threatening to further disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East.
Front-month Brent crude futures settled up $3.29, or 3.4%, at $101.21 a barrel, after touching a high of $101.58. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $3.02, or 3.25%, at $96.05 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed at their highest since May 22.
old prices climbed over 1% on Wednesday as the dollar weakened, with investors looking ahead to key U.S. inflation data this week for fresh signals on the Fed’s policy path as oil prices rallied.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,414.30 per ounce by 01:54 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to settle at $4,458.80.
