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Market Roundup
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.8% previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.6% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.6%, 2.5% previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 0.8% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.7% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.7% previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.7% previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.7% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.0%, 2.7% previous
•Germany CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.8% previous
•Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 0.7% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.8% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.9% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Aug) 2.9%, 2.8% previous
•North Rhine Westphalia CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 US Chicago PMI (Aug) 57.8 forecast, 57.6 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug) 1.3 forecast, 1.3 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.715% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.790% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday after data showed German inflation rose in August. German inflation rose in August on higher energy prices due to the Iran conflict, but the increase was less than expected and core inflation stabilised, easing concerns that price pressures from the war could spread more widely through the economy.Inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year from 2.8% the month before, preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. renewed Gulf tensions. Meanwhile, finance leaders from the G20 gather in North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday as elevated energy and commodity prices linked to the Iran war weigh on global growth prospects. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1680(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1734(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1636(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Monday as dollar weakened on renewed geopolitical tensions. U.S. forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first known U.S. military action against Iran since late July, prompting Tehran to launch attacks on two U.S. air bases in Jordan, Iranian media reported. Investors are now turning their focus to upcoming U.S. data, particularly Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and next week's consumer inflation figures, both of which could shape expectations ahead of the September Fed meeting. Sterling was a touch higher to $1.3543. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was down 0.14% to 99.51 after hitting 99.73 on Friday, its strongest since August 17..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3604(Aug 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3526(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3481(Aug 14th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher but gains were limited on Monday as geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty.Iran targeted military bases in Jordan in retaliation for U.S. attacks on Larak Island, raising concerns about a broader escalation in the Middle East.Focus will turn to a U.S.-hosted meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on Monday and Tuesday. Markets will watch for signs of coordinated efforts to sever ties with Iran, as well as measures aimed at easing concerns over rising U.S. debt and bond yields.Markets will also focus on upcoming Australian economic data. Australia’s Q2 current-account figures are due Tuesday, followed by Q2 real GDP on Wednesday, with economists expecting quarterly growth of around 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7201(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07054(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as the yen strengthened amid growing expectations of further central bank rate hikes.Markets have priced in a near certainty that the Bank of Japan will raise rates at its meeting next month.BOJ Governor Ueda said last month that the central bank would focus on rising inflation risks and could accelerate the pace of rate hikes if financial conditions remained too loose.The yen’s weakness is creating challenges for Japanese policymakers by raising import prices and adding to inflationary pressures. The currency has been weighed down in part by the BOJ’s gradual rate-hike cycle, which has maintained a wide rate differential with the U.S. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.73(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.54(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 159.05(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares inched lower on Monday as fresh U.S.-Iran military strikes pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, while the benchmark STOXX 600 remained on track for a fifth straight monthly gain.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded near a two-week low on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation concerns, while hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh boosted expectations for a September rate hike.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,455.19 per ounce by 1210 GMT, having touched its lowest level since August 19 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.5% to $4,506.60.
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday after the U.S. attacked an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran said it had retaliated, escalating tensions as the conflict entered its sixth month.
Brent crude futures were up $2.35, or 2.67%, to $90.45 a barrel at 1306 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $2.31, or 2.77%, to $85.71. Brent rose as high as $91.52 earlier in the day, marking its highest level since August 25.
