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Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims 206K, 205K forecast, 204K previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US Trade Balance (Jul) -88.60B, -89.40B forecast, -71.20B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,779K, 1,771K previous
•US Exports (Jul) 310.70B, 314.70B previous
•US Imports (Jul) 399.30B, 388.00B previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.25K, 205.75K previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Jul) 0.77B, 3.20B forecast, 4.20B previous
•Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0%, 0.7% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Canada Imports (Jul) 75.37B, 73.76B previous
•Canada Exports (Jul) 76.14B, 77.96B previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 56.0%, 56.0 forecast, 54.5 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 55.4%, 54.1 forecast, 54.1 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) 47.8%, 48.3 forecast, 47.4 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) 72.6%, 70.0 forecast, 70.3 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Aug) 60.9%, 56.0 forecast, 57.2 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Aug) 61.7%, 59.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)2.6% forecast,-6.4% previous
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Jul) -1.6% forecast, -3.3% previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul) 0.6% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.0% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Jul) 116.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday as dollar dipped on comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled a willingness to remain patient on raising interest rates.Waller, in remarks for a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event, said that, if upcoming data confirmed inflation pressures were cooling off, he was inclined to argue in favor of keeping interest rates steady at the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting.Expectations for a rate increase at the Fed's mid-September meeting came down after the comments, with the market now pricing in a roughly 50% chance for a hike, versus 63.2% in the prior session, according to CME FedWatch. Thursday's economic reports were generally upbeat, with low jobless claims and an acceleration of the service sector. On the other hand, the data showed services input prices hit their highest level since October 2022, and the international trade gap widened by 24.4%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1597(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1502(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as dollar slipped after Federal Reserve Governor Waller comments.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if upcoming data confirms that inflation pressures are cooling off, he is inclined to argue in favor of keeping interest rates steady at the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting.. The UK services sector continued to expand in August, extending its growth streak to two months, while business confidence rose.The final reading of the S&P Global UK Services PMI rose to 52.5 in August from 52.1 in July, marking the sector’s strongest growth since April.The focus now shifts to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, where analysts forecast an increase of 56,000 in jobs, following July's shock drop of 23,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3548(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3629(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3462(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3390(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as higher commodities prices and weaker greenback boosted loonie.On the data front, Canada’s trade surplus narrowed to C$769 million ($557 million) from a four-year high of C$4.2 billion recorded a month earlier, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.Investors are awaiting key U.S. payrolls data and domestic employment figures due on Friday, which could further shape expectations for the policy path of both central banks.The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but Governor Tiff Macklem said policymakers were prepared to raise rates further if inflation remained elevated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3863(SAM 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3780(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3711(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency strengthened on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates later this month. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers would consider a September hike, with inflation risks a key factor in the decision, reinforcing expectations of a near-term move.Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said he remained vigilant over foreign exchange developments, adding that he was not yet comfortable with recent yen moves. An additional hike in October is also seen as a possibility, though not a likely one. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.38(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.39(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level ).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak as the global bond selloff eased, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.63 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.07 percent.
Wall Street rallied on Thursday as investors pared back expectations for a rate hike after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favour keeping the Fed funds target rate unchanged if incoming data showed inflationary pressures were easing.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.18% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.06% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.40% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained more than 2% on Thursday as traders reduced expectations for a September rate hike after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favour keeping interest rates unchanged if incoming data showed inflationary pressures continuing to ease.
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 per ounce by 02:04 p.m. ET(1804 GMT), after touching its highest since August 28 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 2.8% higher at $4539.9.
Oil prices were mixed on Thursday, supported after U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats against Tehran revived concerns about disruption to Middle East supplies but pressured by comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin signaling openness to peace negotiations.
Brent crude futures settled down 11 cents, or 0.12%, at $95.52 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.32%, to $91.30. Both contracts hit six-week highs earlier in the session.
