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Market Roundup
• Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) -3.6%, 0.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
• Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) -8.9%, 18.4% previous
• Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q2) 2.1%, -3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•08:00 EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jul) 4.0% previous
•08:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jul) 3.5% forecast, 3.3% previous
•08:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Jul) 17,610.9B previous
•08:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jul) 2.9% forecast, 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded flat against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as attention shifted to highly anticipated remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh this week.Warsh's remarks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Friday are expected to be closely watched for further direction. Data on Wednesday showed that annual U.S. inflation held steady in July, well above the Fed's 2% target, and the unexpected pause in the decline from a recent Iran war-induced peak is likely to intensify the central bank's debate over whether rates should be lifted or held steady. Markets see a 36.1% probability of a September U.S. rate hike and a 72.1% chance by December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1680(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1734(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1656(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased slightly on Thursday as investors hope for clarity on Warsh's Fed plan at Jackson Hole.Investors this week will watch the annual Jackson Hole symposium for clues on how policymakers plan to navigate a landscape in which higher Treasury yields could do some of the tightening work for them.The central bank has often used the Wyoming gathering, hosted by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, to flag its expectations for rate policy, but few investors expect President Trump's new Chair Kevin Warsh to honor that tradition in his debut speech on Friday. He has abandoned the forward guidance investors were long accustomed to, contending traders and portfolio managers should scrutinize market signals instead. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3685(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3624(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3531(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Thursday as expectations of another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in September supported Australian dollar.Australia's household spending jumped 1.1% in July, data showed on Thursday, suggesting consumer demand remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs. That added to a hot inflation report on Wednesday that had swap markets pricing a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month as a coin toss, at 53%probability.Stronger-than-expected household spending, together with still-elevated inflation, has reinforced the view that the RBA may need to tighten policy again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7201(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07054(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday after a Bank of Japan policymaker did not rule out a rate hike next month but stopped short of explicitly signalling one. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stressed the need for timely interest-rate hikes on Thursday, citing the risk of inflation overshooting the central bank’s 2% target and reinforcing expectations for further policy tightening. However, he avoided giving a clear signal on a possible September rate hike or the pace of future increases. Himino pointed to rising fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, strong global AI demand and higher import prices caused by the weak yen as key inflation risks. His remarks were closely watched for clues on the timing and pace of the BOJ’s next policy move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.60(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.16 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Thursday after Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations, boosting technology hardware makers and improving investor sentiment despite data showing that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated.
China A50 was up by 0.53% , Hang Seng was down at 0.41%, China A50 was up at 0.53%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending a streak of losses, on expectations that talks between Iran and Qatar might open the Strait of Hormuz and reduce supply disruptions from the war in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.43 a barrel at 0330 GMT, in line for a fourth day of declines. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.86, in line for a fifth day of losses.
Gold prices drifted higher on Thursday as concerns over dollar debasement and U.S. fiscal risks continued to support demand for the precious metal, while investors shifted their focus to highly anticipated remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole for clues on the future path of U.S. monetary policy.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,611.16 per ounce by 0630 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,664.50.
