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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

Saudi Aramco Q1 Profit Jumps 25% as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Oil Exports

Saudi Aramco posted a strong 25% increase in first-quarter net profit for 2026, highlighting the companys resilience amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and major disruptions to global energy shipping routes. The Saudi...

Dollar Struggles to Rally Despite Strong US Data as Fed Hike Expectations Remain Limited

The U.S. dollar has continued to underperform even as economic data points to improving fundamentals, and BofA Securities believes the markets hesitation is tied to expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve rate...

Malaysia Unveils Energy Security Plan Amid Iran Conflict and Rising Oil Costs

Malaysia is preparing to introduce a comprehensive strategy to protect its oil supply as tensions surrounding the Iran conflict continue to disrupt global energy markets. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is expected to...

Russian LNG Shadow Fleet Expands Amid Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions

Russia is intensifying efforts to bypass Western energy sanctions after a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker operating under a newly adopted Russian flag was spotted loading fuel linked to the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2...

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs as AI Stocks Rally and Strong Jobs Data Boost Confidence

The SP 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday as investors poured into AI-related stocks and welcomed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the American economy....

Politics

Qatar Condemns Drone Strike as Iran Conflict Threatens Gulf Shipping and Global Markets

Qatar has strongly condemned a drone strike on a cargo vessel in its territorial waters, calling the incident a serious violation of international law and a dangerous escalation in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The...

Iran Military Readiness Intensifies After Meeting With Mojtaba Khamenei

Irans military leadership has reinforced its warning against the United States and Israel following a high-level meeting between senior armed forces officials and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, according to a report...

Qatar LNG Tanker Crosses Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran War Tensions

A QatarEnergy-operated liquefied natural gas tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday for the first time since the Iran war began on February 28, signaling a possible easing of tensions in one of the...

Germany Rejects Putin’s Proposal for Schroeder to Mediate Ukraine Peace Talks

Germany has dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putins suggestion that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder could act as a mediator between Russia and the European Union in possible Ukraine peace negotiations....

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Ceasefire Violations Amid Drone and Artillery Attacks

Russias Defence Ministry claimed on Sunday that Ukraine breached a temporary ceasefire by carrying out drone and artillery attacks against Russian forces, according to reports from Interfax news agency. Moscow stated that...

Science

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

Technology

AI-Driven Inflation Raises U.S. Consumer Prices, Goldman Sachs Says

Artificial intelligence is starting to increase U.S. consumer prices through rising costs in electronics, software, and electricity, according to a new Goldman Sachs report. The investment bank said AI-related inflation...

Judge Delays SEC Settlement With Elon Musk Over Twitter Stock Disclosure Case

A federal judge has declined to immediately approve a proposed $1.5 million settlement between Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tied to Musks 2022 Twitter stock purchase disclosures. The...

Broadcom Eyes $35 Billion AI Chip Financing Deal With Apollo and Blackstone

Broadcom Inc. is reportedly in discussions with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Inc. to secure around $35 billion in financing for its expanding artificial intelligence chip business, according to a Bloomberg...

Dell Stock Hits Record High After Trump Endorsement, AI Server Demand Fuels Rally

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) surged to an all-time high on Friday after receiving a public endorsement from President Donald Trump during a White House event. The president encouraged Americans to go out and buy...

TikTok Nears $400 Million Settlement With Trump Administration Over Child Privacy Lawsuit

TikTok and the Trump administration are reportedly close to reaching a $400 million settlement tied to allegations that the popular video-sharing platform violated U.S. child privacy laws. According to ABC News, the...