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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

Trump Unveils $3 Billion U.S. Critical Minerals Push

President Donald Trump announced roughly $3 billion in U.S. government investments and financing for critical minerals, battery materials and mining projects, part of a broader effort to strengthen domestic production and...

Oil Prices Set for Steep Weekly Losses as Hormuz Deal Stalls

Oil prices fluctuated on Friday and remained on course for sharp weekly declines as uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive volatility across global energy markets....

Gold Prices Surge 7% as Dollar Falls, Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

Gold prices rallied sharply on Friday, putting the precious metal on track for its strongest weekly performance since late January as a weaker U.S. dollar, lower oil prices and softer Federal Reserve rate hike expectations...

US Dollar Falls as Weak July Jobs Report Dents Fed Rate Hike Bets

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday and headed toward its first two-week losing streak since late May after a disappointing July jobs report reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The U.S....

China Exports Beat July Forecasts as AI Demand Fuels High-Tech Trade

Chinas exports posted stronger-than-expected growth in July, supported by booming global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and a rush to ship goods before higher U.S. tariffs took effect. Exports increased...

Politics

Taiwan President Lai Oversees Coastal Strike Drills in Han Kuang War Games

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te observed coastal strike drills on Saturday as the island continued its annual Han Kuang military exercises, designed to strengthen Taiwans defence readiness against a potential Chinese attack....

Trump Administration Plans $1 Billion Security Aid Package for Colombia

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to provide $1 billion in security assistance to Colombia under newly inaugurated President Abelardo De La Espriella, the U.S. State Department said Friday. The...

US Expects Iran-Oman Hormuz Shipping Deal Soon

The United States expects Iran and Oman to reach an agreement soon that could restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and energy supplies, according to a Reuters report...

SEC Moves to Dismiss Insider Trading Case Against Trump-Pardoned Terren Peizer

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving to dismiss its civil insider trading lawsuit against Terren Peizer, the former Ontrak CEO who was convicted in a landmark federal insider trading case before...

Ukraine Agrees to Protect Kazakhstan Oil Exports via Black Sea

Ukraine has reportedly agreed not to attack certain non-Russian oil tankers and infrastructure involved in exporting Kazakhstan crude oil through the Black Sea, a move that could help stabilize supplies from one of the...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

OpenAI Restricts Astra AI Over Cyberattack Risks

OpenAI has reportedly restricted parts of the development of its next-generation AI model, code-named Astra, after early evaluations indicated the system could potentially carry out sophisticated cyberattacks with limited...

Nvidia to Invest Up to $3 Billion in Blackstone-Backed Lancium

Nvidia is reportedly preparing to invest as much as $3 billion in Lancium, a Blackstone-backed power infrastructure developer involved in the Stargate artificial intelligence infrastructure initiative, as demand for...

Meta Ordered to Pay $567M Over Child Safety Violations in New Mexico

Meta Platforms Inc. has been ordered to pay $567 million into a fund designed to address harm to young people, in a major legal ruling involving child safety on Facebook and Instagram. Judge Bryan Biedscheid of New Mexicos...

Nintendo Shares Jump as Switch 2 Sales Boost Earnings

Nintendo shares surged nearly 5% on Friday after the Japanese gaming giant reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and upgraded its full-year financial outlook, supported by robust demand for the new Switch...

Cloudflare Stock Jumps 15% as Earnings Beat Estimates, 2026 Outlook Raised

Cloudflare shares surged in after-hours trading Thursday after the cloud connectivity and cybersecurity company delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly results, issued upbeat third-quarter guidance and raised its...