
Germany punches below the belt for economic optimists
May 19, 2015 12:38 pm UTC| Commentary
The ZEW expectations index for the German economy fell surprisingly steeply in May from 53.3 to 41.9 points. This probably came as a punch to the stomach for economic optimists, as there are now increasing signals that the...
Stronger European growth, US weakness, more hawkish MPC
May 19, 2015 12:09 pm UTC| Commentary
Analysts believe that the upward revisions to Euro Area consensus growth forecasts have now largely run their course (taking 2016 GDP consensus to 1.8%). Likewise, the correction in 10-year Bund yields from 7bp to 72bp...

Supply concerns overshadow dollar weakness
May 19, 2015 12:07 pm UTC| Commentary
Weakness in the US dollar and rising oil prices would normally be considered positive for agricultural commodity prices. However, despite a 3.5% fall in the value of the US currency and a 5% rise in the price of Brent...
Emerging Markets exports raise questions over global demand
May 19, 2015 12:02 pm UTC| Commentary
Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in Chinas trade data. But the...

May 19, 2015 10:49 am UTC| Commentary
The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains very low. Indeed,...
BI left the reference rate of 7.5% unchanged
May 19, 2015 10:25 am UTC| Commentary
Going forward, there is no scope for significant BI easing (consensus: 40bps by mid-2016).BI remains focused on reining in its current account deficit, which is unlikely to improve much (BI forecast for 2015 at 3.3-3.5% of...
Strong demand the key to oil market strength
May 19, 2015 10:16 am UTC| Commentary
The next OPEC meeting is just over two weeks away. In annalystss view, the oil market has yet to reach consensus on the effect of the previous OPEC meeting. Opinions are divided over the extent to which the market has...