Labour market slack to diminish faster than Fed projects

Jul 14, 2015 17:20 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

A key reason why we expect the Fed to hike in September rather than wait to December is developments in the labour market. The June summary of economic projections showed that the Fed sees the unemployment rate falling to...

Greek deal turns Fed focus back to domestic data

Jul 14, 2015 16:52 pm UTC| Commentary

Long-held view has been that, the Fed would deliver the first Fed funds rate hike in September this year. This view is based on expectation that, US GDP growth should be in the 2.5-3.0% range in the current and coming...

Corporate earnings season trumps geopolitics

Jul 14, 2015 16:27 pm UTC| Commentary

Fundamentals drive markets and there is no more telling fundamental than corporate earnings aka the bottom line. Second quarter earnings have kicked off. So far, they are dripping in positive but will be in full swing in...

Unstable global financial conditions and the BOJ

Jul 14, 2015 16:09 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

BoJ is likely to stay on hold and unlikely to significantly change its optimistic growth and inflation outlook. But, BoJs assessment of external risks will be closely watched, especially if risk sentiment deteriorates...

US June retail sales figures, far weaker than expected

Jul 14, 2015 15:11 pm UTC| Commentary

Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in June, far worse than the median consensus forecast which called for a 0.3% gain. Revisions to the month prior were also negative, taking the headline reading down to +1.0% m/m (originally...

US Small business sentiment takes a hit in June

Jul 14, 2015 15:03 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The NFIBs small business optimism index tumbled by 4.2 points in June to 94.1 - the lowest reading in more than a year. The headline number came in considerably below the consensus estimate, which called for the index to...

Brazilian GDP likely grow at -1.6% in 2015

Jul 14, 2015 12:38 pm UTC| Commentary

On the demand side, Brazils retail sales data released for April and May suggests that consumption is set to contract in Q2 as well. Therefore, Societe Generale expects the consumption to be a net drag on growth for the...