US labour market slack to diminish faster than Fed projects
Jul 15, 2015 10:02 am UTC| Commentary
The June summary of economic projections showed that the US unemployment rate likely to reach 5.2-5.3% on average in Q4 this year. Further, the long-run unemployment rate (NAIRU) is projected to be 5.1%. Danske Bank,...
Significantly lower EU rapeseed crop expected
Jul 15, 2015 09:11 am UTC| Commentary
The current EU rapeseed crop forecasts issued by the US Department of Agriculture, the analyst firm Oil World and the European Commission range between 21.4 million and 21.7 million tons. A record 24.3 million tons were...
Market participants on gold market focus on Yellen testimony and Greek vote
Jul 15, 2015 09:10 am UTC| Commentary
Golds price surge was attributable to poorer than expected US retail sales figures in June. Gold is trading at $1,155 per troy ounce again this morning after having briefly climbed to $1,160 yesterday.If the next economic...
EUR-US swap rate spread to widen on Fed repricing
Jul 15, 2015 07:45 am UTC| Commentary
Two-year yields in the US have come back from their lows last week, the pricing of near-term Fed hikes remain subdued. A full 25bp rate hike is not priced until the January FOMC meeting next year and the probability placed...
Fed lift-off likely to weaken Em currencies?
Jul 15, 2015 07:34 am UTC| Commentary
The first 25 bp rate hike is expected in September, supported by the signals from the latest FOMC meeting in June. This reinforces the view of a stronger USD after the summer and general EM FX weakness.Individual country...
Lower commodity prices to largely hit the Emerging Markets
Jul 15, 2015 07:28 am UTC| Commentary
Oil prices have come under renewed pressure as Iran has sealed a deal with six world powers that would allow it to export oil again on an already oversupplied world market. The EM commodity currencies, such as the RUB,...
BoJ keeps monetary policy unchanged
Jul 15, 2015 07:21 am UTC| Commentary
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) opted to leave its monetary policy unchanged this morning was expected. It also remained optimistic that the Japanese economy is now slowly but steadily gathering momentum. However, that does not...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget
Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board
Sudan: civil war stretches into a second year with no end in sight